3 models fit Sherwin-Williams Company (The) Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Silver64
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionSherwin-Williams Company (The) Common Stock (SHW)
Fair value (3 models)
$159
ACCE price target
$322
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST; previously $166 since 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 19 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST.
Price used: $337 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
112.1% above
-52.9% to fair value
ACCE score
57
out of 100
Analysts
52% buy
29 covering
P/E
31.1x
forward 25.0x
1-year return
+1.6%
Dividend yield
0.93%
Sherwin-Williams Company (The) Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Sherwin-Williams manufactures and distributes architectural coatings, industrial finishes, and protective coatings through a network of 4,900+ company-operated stores and a direct sales force. The company's vertically integrated model, which controls manufacturing, distribution, and retail, creates a structural moat: competitors cannot match its store density or supply chain efficiency, and switching costs for professional contractors are high once they adopt Sherwin-Williams' systems and credit terms. Housing starts and commercial construction activity drive near-term demand, with the company well-positioned to capture share as smaller regional competitors face margin pressure from input costs. Trading at 23.6x forward earnings with an ROE of 65% reflects the quality of the business, but the valuation leaves limited room for disappointment; the thesis works only if housing and nonresidential construction remain resilient through 2025 and the company can sustain its 18% operating margin as volumes normalize post-pandemic.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Leverage and debt service risk
Debt/Equity of 3.90 is elevated for a specialty chemicals company. With operating margin at 18.1%, debt servicing capacity depends on sustained earnings; any revenue slowdown pressures coverage.
moderate
Valuation stretched on near-term growth
Forward P/E of 23.6 prices in 14.3% earnings growth, but 5-year revenue CAGR is only 2.1%. QoQ +19.8% is likely cyclical; reversion to trend would compress multiples.
moderate
Insider selling without offsetting buys
Last 10 disclosures show $7.67M in sales and $0 in buys. No single transaction is alarming, but the one-way flow warrants monitoring.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Recent revenue growth of 7.5% year over year significantly outpaces the 5-year average of 2.1%, suggesting accelerating demand.
An ROE of 65.1% and ROIC of 13.6% demonstrate exceptional capital efficiency and pricing power in a competitive industry.
Free cash flow of 2.5 billion dollars funds aggressive share buybacks, with diluted share count down 2.1% last fiscal year.
Why it could disappoint
Consensus fair value of 169.60 dollars is 46.9% below the current share price of 319.36 dollars, suggesting significant overvaluation.
Debt to equity of 3.90 leaves minimal cushion if housing demand weakens or raw material costs spike unexpectedly.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 27, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where SHW's valuation models land
Price
$337.06
Model fair value
$159
Model range
$117 to $209
Fair value $159
Price $337
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores