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ECL
ACCE-researched

Ecolab Inc. Common Stock (ECL) fair value

Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals · NYSE · United States
$288.53-1.29%
Market cap $81.9BNext earnings 2026-10-27Updated Oct 19, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 210% above our fair value
Price
$288.53
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$93.16
Model range
$73.26 to $142
Fair value $93.16
Price $289
4 models fit Ecolab Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 4 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Bronze52
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionEcolab Inc. Common Stock (ECL)
Fair value (4 models)
$93.16
ACCE price target
$275
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 18:04 CEST; previously $94.25 since 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 19 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 18:04 CEST.
Price used: $289 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
209.7% above
-67.7% to fair value
ACCE score
56
out of 100
Analysts
83% buy
24 covering
P/E
38.7x
forward 29.7x
1-year return
+4.9%
Dividend yield
0.99%

Ecolab Inc. Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Ecolab makes cleaning and sanitation chemicals for food processing plants, hospitals, and commercial kitchens, plus water treatment systems for industrial facilities. The company benefits from structural demand: food safety regulation tightens globally, and water scarcity pushes industrial customers toward treatment and reuse rather than fresh-water consumption. Revenue growth of 9.7% and an operating margin of 18.5% reflect pricing power in a fragmented market where switching costs are high once a customer adopts Ecolab's dosing systems. The forward PE of 30x suggests the market has already priced in near-term expansion, and at that valuation the stock offers limited margin of safety unless the company can accelerate growth beyond current trends or demonstrate that its water business can sustain margins above 20% as it scales. Worth a deeper look only if you believe Ecolab can grow faster than its historical 8-10% or if you see a near-term catalyst to re-rate the multiple downward.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 12, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Valuation premium to model
    Forward P/E of 30.0 and EV/EBITDA of 21.2 are elevated for 3.3% earnings growth.
  • high
    Earnings growth deceleration
    YoY earnings growth of 3.3% trails revenue growth of 9.7%. 5-year revenue CAGR of 4.3% signals slowing trajectory. QoQ revenue declined 3.1%.
  • moderate
    Insider selling outweighs buying
    Last 10 disclosures show $7.24M in sales versus $1.02M in buys, a 7:1 ratio. Insider ownership flat at +0.2%.
  • moderate
    High leverage with modest FCF
    Debt/Equity of 1.38 is elevated. FCF of $1.5B must service debt and fund growth; limited margin for error if earnings weaken further.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Revenue growth of 9.7% year over year significantly outpaces the 4.3% five-year average, showing accelerating momentum.
  • Return on equity of 22.0% and free cash flow of 1.5B demonstrate strong capital efficiency and cash generation.
  • Analyst consensus rates 83% of coverage as Buy or Strong Buy with a mean target 15.3% above current price.
Why it could disappoint
  • Consensus fair value is 66.6% below the current share price of 281.83, suggesting significant overvaluation.
  • Free cash flow yield of 1.9% is meager compensation for equity risk at a 5.2% risk-free rate.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Oct 27, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where ECL's valuation models land
Price
$288.53
Model fair value
$93.16
Model range
$73.26 to $142
Fair value $93.16
Price $289
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.

Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish83% buy · 24 covering analysts
● Strong buy 15● Buy 5● Hold 4● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
Do politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
-0.1%
1 month
+4.3%
3 months
+7.4%
6 months
+7.1%
YTD
+9.9%
1 year
+4.9%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
19 Oct 2026, 18:04 CESTRatingOvervaluedfirst publication$289
19 Oct 2026, 18:04 CESTFair value$93.16$94.25$289
11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$94.25$95.31$282
30 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$95.31$97.15$280
21 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$97.15$95.62$269
19 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$275first publication$269
19 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$95.62$97.76$272
14 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$97.76$99.71$276
12 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$99.71$101$272
2 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$101$102$283

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth52Value35Quality75Momentum63Total56
Valuation
Trailing P/E
38.7x
Forward P/E
29.7x
PEG
2.49
P/B
7.71x
EV / Revenue
5.1x
Book value/sh
$35.87
Enterprise value
$86.4B
Profitability
ROE
22.0%
FCF yield
2.32%
ROIC
8.9%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.97
Dividend yield
0.99%
Beta
0.88

Price

+4.1% · 1Y

Ask anything about ECL

Answered from Ecolab Inc. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 20% of peers
low 0.0x38.7xhigh 38.8x
ROEbetter than 67% of peers
low 0%22%high 65%
Div yieldbetter than 17% of peers
low 0.9%1.0%high 2.4%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
ECL Ecolab Inc. Common Stock$288.53$93210% above38.7x22.0%7556
SHW Sherwin-Williams Company (The) Common Stock$345.63$159118% above31.1x65.1%7257
APD Air Products and Chemicals Inc. Common Stock$308.22---0.0%5050
AI.PA Air Liquide€173.58€8898% above31.5x14.0%7955
GIVN.SW GivaudanCHF 3975.00CHF 1683136% above38.8x22.3%7552
SIKA.SW Sika AGCHF 184.50CHF 10772% above27.8x16.0%6352
DSFIR.AS DSM-Firmenich AG€108.80€36203% above-1.9%4352

Sector report card

Where ECL ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • GlobeNewswire•Sep 24, 2026
    Temperature Management Systems Market Forecasts Growth from $3.56B (2026) to $4.58B by 2031, Profiling 3M, Asahi-Kasei, GE Healthcare, Dragerwerk & Medtronic
  • GlobeNewswire•Sep 23, 2026
    Global Sanitizer Aerosol Spray Market Forecast, 2026-2032 - Routine Hygiene, Sustainable Packaging and AI Innovation Drive 8.54% CAGR Toward USD 4.12 Billion, with 3M, Ecolab, Reckitt and Clorox Profiled
  • Business Wire•Sep 22, 2026
    Ecolab Schedules Webcast and Conference Call on October 27, 2026
10 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
October 2026
Oct 2
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-30
View on SEC →
Oct 2
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-30
View on SEC →
Oct 2
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-30
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR