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SAFE
ACCE-researched

Safehold Inc. New Common Stock (SAFE) fair value

Real Estate · REIT - Diversified · NYSE · United States
$11.23-0.88%
Market cap $802MNext earnings 2026-11-03Updated Oct 19, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 47% below our fair value
Price
$11.23
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
$21.35
Only one of our models could value this stock with confidence, so use it as a guide.
Not used by alerts or posts.
Valued as a REIT (property company): Price to FFO, Dividend discount, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionSafehold Inc. New Common Stock (SAFE)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$12.50
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $28.00 since 28 Apr 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $11.23 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Dividend discount, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Price to FFO.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
58
out of 100
Analysts
27% buy
11 covering
P/E
7.0x
forward 8.1x
1-year return
-27.7%
Dividend yield
6.64%

Safehold Inc. New Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
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OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Safehold owns ground leases under land beneath commercial and multifamily buildings, collecting long-term rent from the operators who own the structures above, with a 92.9% gross margin and 73.7% operating margin reflecting that asset-light, lease-only model. The structural appeal is that ground leases sit at the bottom of the capital stack and typically carry long initial terms with contractual escalators, so cash flow is more predictable than for a landlord exposed to the buildings themselves. Revenue growth of 20.0% is the headline number for a portfolio that expands by acquiring new ground positions, and the fund's interest is whether that growth can keep converting into per-share earnings. At a 7.2 trailing P/E and 8.1 forward P/E the market is pricing in little growth, while the 4.6% ROE shows how much of the business is still thinly capitalized relative to its equity base. The company is small at roughly $818M in market cap and sits in no major index, which limits passive demand and makes it a candidate for a deeper look on valuation and funding costs rather than on the strength of the thesis alone.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Profitability collapse
    Net margin 26.6% masks ROE of only 4.6%. Earnings growth 7.8% YoY lags revenue growth 20.0%, signaling deteriorating unit economics or rising costs.
  • high
    Leverage and debt service risk
    Debt/Equity 1.87 is elevated for a REIT. With ROE at 4.6%, debt burden is not being serviced by returns on equity, raising refinance risk.
  • moderate
    ACCE score deterioration
    Score fell 6 points in 90 days (64 to 58). M-score at 17/100 signals quality concerns; G-score decline from 64 suggests growth sustainability questions.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Revenue is growing at 20.0% year over year with a 19.4% five-year average, showing consistent expansion.
  • The stock trades at 7.5x trailing P/E and offers a 5.9% dividend yield plus 5.6% free cash flow yield.
  • Analysts have a mean price target of $17.60, implying 46.7% upside from the current $12.00 share price.
Why it could disappoint
  • ROE of 4.6% and ROIC of 1.4% are extremely weak for a REIT leveraged at 1.87x debt to equity.
  • Net margin of 26.6% masks that 20.0% revenue growth is not converting into shareholder value creation.
  • Only 36% of analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, and forward P/E of 8.1x suggests limited near-term catalyst.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Nov 3, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where SAFE's valuation models land
Price
$11.23
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
$21.35
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Price to FFO
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See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.

Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bearish27% buy · 11 covering analysts
● Strong buy 2● Buy 1● Hold 6● Sell 1● Strong sell 1
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
Do politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
-1.0%
1 month
-13.0%
3 months
-32.2%
6 months
-29.8%
YTD
-18.0%
1 year
-27.7%

SEC filings

Recent ACCE blog coverage

  • $SAFE Score Drops 38 Points to 62 in Major ACCE Downgrade
    Safehold Inc. sees significant ACCE composite score decline from 100 to 62, suggesting deterioration across key financial metrics.
    2026-05-01
  • $SAFE Reports Modest Growth in Q1 2026 Earnings
    Safehold Inc. posted 5.7% revenue growth and 5.6% EPS growth in Q1 2026, trading at 9.9x trailing P/E with ACCE score of 62.
    2026-04-30

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$12.50$28.00$12.00
26 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$32.51$33.01$12.38
17 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$33.01$33.45$13.78
14 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$33.45$33.85$14.03
10 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$33.85$34.24$14.69
31 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$34.24$14.57$15.35
26 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$14.57$14.17$15.46
24 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$14.17$14.42$15.32
22 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$14.42$14.17$15.35
19 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$14.17$7.60$14.84

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth64Value84Quality66Momentum17Total58
Valuation
Trailing P/E
7.0x
Forward P/E
8.1x
PEG
0.65
P/B
0.37x
EV / Revenue
13.0x
Book value/sh
$34.33
Enterprise value
$5.5B
Profitability
ROE
4.6%
FCF yield
6.33%
ROIC
1.4%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
1.87
Dividend yield
6.64%
Beta
1.77

Price

-28.7% · 1Y

Ask anything about SAFE

Answered from Safehold Inc. New Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 100% of peers
low 7.0x7.0xhigh 1774.0x
ROEbetter than 67% of peers
low -11%5%high 9%
Div yieldbetter than 50% of peers
low 0.0%6.6%high 10.0%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
SAFE Safehold Inc. New Common Stock $11.23--7.0x4.6%6658
CTO CTO Realty Growth Inc. Common Stock$20.25$1721% above14.4x8.5%7674
JBGS JBG SMITH Properties Common Shares $11.39$6106% above--10.9%3433
YZBL.MC Zambal Spain Socimi, S.A.€0.92€118% above22.9x2.6%8048
GOOD Gladstone Commercial Corporation Real Estate Investment Trust$12.00--48.0x7.3%6860
AHRT AH Realty Trust Inc. Common Stock$6.14$820% below--0.3%4641
FVR FrontView REIT Inc. Common Stock$17.76--1774.0x0.4%5844

Sector report card

Where SAFE ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • PR Newswire•Sep 15, 2026
    Safehold Declares Third Quarter 2026 Common Stock Dividend
  • PR Newswire•Sep 8, 2026
    Safehold Closes Affordable Housing Ground Lease in San Antonio, Texas
  • PR Newswire•Aug 7, 2026
    Star Holdings Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results
8 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
23 filings of 40
May 2026
May 1
10-QQuarterly reportPeriod 2026-03-31
View on SEC →
April 2026
Apr 30
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-04-30
View on SEC →
Apr 30
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-04-30
View on SEC →
20 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR