Only one of our models could value this stock with confidence, so use it as a guide.
Not used by alerts or posts.
Valued as a REIT (property company): Price to FFO, Dividend discount, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionSafehold Inc. New Common Stock (SAFE)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$12.50
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $28.00 since 28 Apr 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $11.23 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Dividend discount, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Price to FFO.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
58
out of 100
Analysts
27% buy
11 covering
P/E
7.0x
forward 8.1x
1-year return
-27.7%
Dividend yield
6.64%
Safehold Inc. New Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
Overview
ACCE thesis
Safehold owns ground leases under land beneath commercial and multifamily buildings, collecting long-term rent from the operators who own the structures above, with a 92.9% gross margin and 73.7% operating margin reflecting that asset-light, lease-only model. The structural appeal is that ground leases sit at the bottom of the capital stack and typically carry long initial terms with contractual escalators, so cash flow is more predictable than for a landlord exposed to the buildings themselves. Revenue growth of 20.0% is the headline number for a portfolio that expands by acquiring new ground positions, and the fund's interest is whether that growth can keep converting into per-share earnings. At a 7.2 trailing P/E and 8.1 forward P/E the market is pricing in little growth, while the 4.6% ROE shows how much of the business is still thinly capitalized relative to its equity base. The company is small at roughly $818M in market cap and sits in no major index, which limits passive demand and makes it a candidate for a deeper look on valuation and funding costs rather than on the strength of the thesis alone.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Profitability collapse
Net margin 26.6% masks ROE of only 4.6%. Earnings growth 7.8% YoY lags revenue growth 20.0%, signaling deteriorating unit economics or rising costs.
high
Leverage and debt service risk
Debt/Equity 1.87 is elevated for a REIT. With ROE at 4.6%, debt burden is not being serviced by returns on equity, raising refinance risk.
moderate
ACCE score deterioration
Score fell 6 points in 90 days (64 to 58). M-score at 17/100 signals quality concerns; G-score decline from 64 suggests growth sustainability questions.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue is growing at 20.0% year over year with a 19.4% five-year average, showing consistent expansion.
The stock trades at 7.5x trailing P/E and offers a 5.9% dividend yield plus 5.6% free cash flow yield.
Analysts have a mean price target of $17.60, implying 46.7% upside from the current $12.00 share price.
Why it could disappoint
ROE of 4.6% and ROIC of 1.4% are extremely weak for a REIT leveraged at 1.87x debt to equity.
Net margin of 26.6% masks that 20.0% revenue growth is not converting into shareholder value creation.
Only 36% of analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, and forward P/E of 8.1x suggests limited near-term catalyst.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 3, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
Walk me through this stock
Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.
PRO
Ask ACCE
Valuation
INVESTOR
Where SAFE's valuation models land
Price
$11.23
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
$21.35
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Price to FFO
Create a free account: 5 full stock pages a month, no card.
See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.
Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores