2 models fit CTO Realty Growth Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
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Valued as a REIT (property company): Price to FFO, Dividend discount, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionCTO Realty Growth Inc. Common Stock (CTO)
Fair value (2 models)
$16.69
ACCE price target
$23.40
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST; previously $16.96 since 14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 13 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
Price used: $19.78 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Dividend discount and Price to FFO.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
18.5% above
-15.6% to fair value
ACCE score
74
out of 100
Analysts
100% buy
5 covering
P/E
14.4x
forward 31.9x
1-year return
+21.2%
Dividend yield
7.51%
CTO Realty Growth Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
CTO Realty Growth owns and operates a portfolio of retail, net-lease and mixed-use properties in the Sunbelt, anchored by grocery-, service- and necessity-oriented tenants rather than discretionary big-box space. Its edge is a concentrated Florida, Texas and Carolina footprint that it has built into a repeatable acquisition and development engine, with management recycling capital from older assets into higher-yielding ones. Revenue has grown 16.5% over the latest year, and a 74.6% gross margin and 25.4% operating margin show the rental base converting efficiently into earnings. The trailing P/E of 15.3 looks modest for a REIT with that growth, though the forward P/E of 122.0 signals that near-term earnings are depressed, so the case rests on whether the 8.5% ROE can rise as recent acquisitions season. At a roughly $772M market cap with no index membership, it is a small, under-followed name where a deeper look at the leasing spreads, occupancy and funding costs is warranted before sizing.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Stretched forward multiple
Forward P/E of 33.1 sits well above the trailing 15.0, implying earnings expected to fall back. The trailing earnings jump of +1200.1% is flattered by a low base, so the trailing P/E is less reliable than it looks.
moderate
Leverage above one times equity
Debt/Equity of 1.09 is meaningful for a REIT that depends on refinancing and rate-sensitive funding. Rising rates would squeeze cash flow faster than the $65M free cash flow suggests.
moderate
Price above model fair value
The stock trades 18.5% above the model fair value of $16.69. It also sits 15.5% below the ACCE price target of $23.40, so the two signals point in different directions.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 16.5% year over year and has averaged 21.5% a year over five years, well ahead of most property owners.
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $65M, an 8.4% yield at the current share price.
Why it could disappoint
The stock trades 18.5% above the model fair value of $16.69, and two of three valuation models sit below the price.
Return on invested capital is only 0.7%, so the company earns very little on the money it has deployed.
The diluted share count rose 27.1% last year, which spreads future earnings and cash flow across many more shares.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 27, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where CTO's valuation models land
Price
$19.78
Model fair value
$16.69
Model range
$12.74 to $20.64
Fair value $16.69
Price $19.78
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Price to FFO
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores