Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
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Valued as a loss-making company: Sales comps and Analyst consensus.
ACCE opinionPlug Power Inc. Common Stock (PLUG)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
$1.30
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $1.38 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Analyst consensus and Sales comps.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
17
out of 100
Analysts
26% buy
19 covering
P/E
0.0x
forward 13.1x
1-year return
-52.1%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Plug Power Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Plug Power makes hydrogen fuel cell systems and electrolyzers, with its GenDrive forklift fuel cells for warehouse operators and its electrolyzers for producing green hydrogen being the core of the business. The bull case rests on hydrogen becoming a real industrial fuel, which would give Plug a scale position in electrolysis that few rivals can match, but the company has yet to show it can run that business profitably. Revenue growth of 2.5% sits well below what the hydrogen story implies, and gross margin of -24.7% means every dollar of sales currently loses money before overhead, with operating margin at -24.9% and ROE at -145%. The stock screens at a forward P/E of 13.1 on a trailing basis that carries no earnings at all, so that multiple rests on a turnaround being underwritten rather than on current results. The score of 23/100 and absence from any index reflect that the fundamentals have not yet caught up with the narrative. This is worth a deeper look only if the work can establish a credible path to positive gross margin and a funded plan to reach it.
⚠ Investor warnings · 5 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
severe
Negative gross margin
Gross margin of -24.7% indicates the company loses money on every unit sold. Revenue growth of 2.5% YoY cannot offset structural unprofitability at the product level.
severe
Massive negative FCF
Free cash flow of -$247M annually with only $2.3B market cap means the company is burning 10.7% of its market value per year in cash.
severe
Deteriorating ACCE score
Score collapsed from 36 to 17 in 90 days, a 53% drop. All four pillars (G, V, Q, M) now score 16-19, indicating broad fundamental weakness.
high
Elevated short interest
23.2% short interest combined with -220.6% net margin and negative earnings suggests significant skepticism about the business model's viability.
high
High leverage with losses
Debt/Equity of 1.77 while burning $247M annually in cash creates refinancing risk if the company cannot reach cash flow breakeven.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 12, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue accelerated to 2.5% year-over-year growth, a sharp reversal from the 0.4% five-year average.
The company beat earnings expectations by 12.5%, delivering negative 0.07 per share versus negative 0.08 forecast.
Why it could disappoint
Plug burns $247 million in free cash flow annually with a negative 10.5% free cash flow yield.
Diluted share count surged 35.0% in the last fiscal year while debt to equity reached 1.77, diluting existing shareholders.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 9, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where PLUG's valuation models land
Price
$1.38
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $2.29
Model
Fair value
Upside
Analyst consensus
Sales comps
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Quality
INVESTOR
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