Market cap €1.8BNext earnings 2026-10-23Updated Oct 22, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 24% below our fair value
Price
€15.19
Model fair valueConfidence: good
€20.05
Model range
€11.29 to €32.07
Fair value €20.05
Price €15.19
3 models fit Signify N.V. and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)Bronze41
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionSignify N.V. (LIGHT.AS)
Fair value (3 models)
€20.05
ACCE price target
€16.00
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 22 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 23 Oct 2026, 01:53 CEST.
Rating published on 22 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST.
Price used: €15.19 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
24.2% below
+32.0% to fair value
ACCE score
44
out of 100
P/E
11.9x
forward 6.2x
1-year return
-34.8%
Dividend yield
11.10%
Signify N.V. in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Signify makes LED lighting, smart connected luminaires, and the Philips Hue consumer system, and it is the largest lighting company by revenue in the world. Revenue is shrinking (down 6.1%) because the professional and consumer LED replacement cycle is largely over and pricing has eased, yet gross margin still holds near 40%, which says the installed base and the software-enabled connected segment carry more value than the headline sales decline suggests. At an 8.2x forward P/E against a trailing 11.2x, the market is pricing in a further drop in earnings, while operating margin of 5.1% and ROE of 6.0% leave little room for error if volumes keep falling. The thesis rests on whether connected lighting and service revenue can stabilise sales before margins compress further, a question worth checking against the next two reported quarters. At 1.7B EUR and with no index membership, this is a small, under-followed European name where a deeper look is justified mainly to test that stabilisation claim.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapsing year on year
Earnings fell 65.9% YoY and revenue fell 6.1%, with a 5y revenue CAGR of -2.4%. The business is shrinking, not just having a soft year.
moderate
Leverage elevated against thin margins
Debt/Equity of 0.59 sits on a 2.9% net margin and 5.1% operating margin, leaving little cushion if earnings keep falling.
moderate
Shares trade well below model fair value
The price of €15.19 sits 24.2% below the model fair value of €20.05. The discount reflects the earnings decline, so the gap is not evidence of mispricing on its own.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow of EUR 399M over the last twelve months gives the stock a 23.5% free cash flow yield.
The shares trade at a 6.2x forward P/E against a sector median of 22.9x, a steep discount.
Management reduced the diluted share count by 2.1% last fiscal year, adding a little to each remaining share.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 6.1% year over year, and the five-year average growth rate is still negative at -2.4% per year.
Return on invested capital of 4.9% is thin, and the company missed its latest earnings estimate by 20.5%.
The shares trade 24.2% below the model fair value of €20.05, but three of five valuation models underpin it, so the gap rests on contested assumptions.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where LIGHT.AS's valuation models land
Price
€15.19
Model fair value
€20.05
Model range
€11.29 to €32.07
Fair value €20.05
Price €15.19
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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Analysts
Wall Street consensus
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Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE
The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.
+Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
+Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
+ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street
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