3 models fit O'Reilly Automotive Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Bronze57
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionO'Reilly Automotive Inc. Common Stock (ORLY)
Fair value (3 models)
$46.38
ACCE price target
$88.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST; previously $45.78 since 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 19 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST.
Price used: $89.92 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
93.9% above
-48.4% to fair value
ACCE score
55
out of 100
Analysts
79% buy
29 covering
P/E
29.2x
forward 23.4x
1-year return
-8.5%
Dividend yield
0.00%
O'Reilly Automotive Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
O'Reilly Automotive distributes aftermarket auto parts and accessories to both DIY consumers and professional mechanics through over 6,000 stores across North America. The company benefits from an aging vehicle fleet (average age now 12.4 years) that drives sustained demand for replacement parts and maintenance, a tailwind that typically outlasts economic cycles. Same-store sales growth has slowed to mid-single digits as the company laps pandemic-era demand spikes, but professional sales (roughly 45% of revenue) remain resilient and carry higher margins than DIY. At a forward PE of 23.7x against 20.2% operating margins and 58.6% ROE, the valuation reflects execution risk rather than structural growth; the stock trades at a meaningful premium to the broader auto parts group despite comparable growth rates. The case hinges on whether management can sustain professional channel momentum and offset DIY normalization through pricing power and cost discipline, neither of which is guaranteed in a consumer slowdown.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Valuation premium to model
Limited upside cushion if growth decelerates.
moderate
Score deterioration
ACCE score fell 4 points to 51 in 90 days. Valuation component (V:42) and Momentum (M:31) are weak; growth may be slowing relative to price.
moderate
Insider selling concentration
Last 10 disclosures show $8.72M in sales, zero buys. Insiders are net sellers despite stock near fair value, a mild negative signal.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
O'Reilly generates exceptional returns on equity at 58.6% while maintaining a net margin of 14.3%, demonstrating pricing power and operational efficiency.
Free cash flow of $1.6B over the last twelve months funds buybacks that offset 2.1% share dilution, supporting per-share growth.
Why it could disappoint
Consensus fair value of $45.78 is 47.0% below the current share price of $86.45, with 3 of 4 valuation models supporting that gap.
The reverse DCF implies perpetual cash flow growth of only 8.6%, below recent revenue growth of 8.1%, leaving little room for deceleration.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 28, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where ORLY's valuation models land
Price
$89.92
Model fair value
$46.38
Model range
$39.29 to $59.06
Fair value $46.38
Price $89.92
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores