3 models fit AutoZone Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Bronze47
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionAutoZone Inc. Common Stock (AZO)
Fair value (3 models)
$2040
ACCE price target
$3404
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST; previously $1944 since 14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $3920 since 13 May 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
Price used: $3201 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
56.9% above
-36.3% to fair value
ACCE score
50
out of 100
Analysts
85% buy
27 covering
P/E
20.7x
forward 16.5x
1-year return
-16.9%
Dividend yield
0.00%
AutoZone Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
AutoZone sells aftermarket auto parts, batteries, and maintenance products to both do-it-yourself drivers and commercial repair shops through its roughly 6,000 US stores and its commercial delivery program. Its edge is scale in a fragmented category: the installed base of vehicles keeps aging, and a large share of the parts inventory and distribution network is hard for smaller rivals to match. Revenue growth of 5.6% and a 52.3% gross margin reflect that pricing power, while the 20.0% operating margin shows the model converts well to profit. The stock trades at 20.1 times trailing earnings and 16.5 times forward earnings, so the market is already pricing in some earnings growth, and the 0.0% ROE in our data is worth verifying against the filings before drawing conclusions about capital efficiency. The score of 45/100 and absence from major indices suggest the quantitative profile is mixed, so this merits a deeper look at the commercial business growth and buyback-driven per-share trends before any conclusion.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Profitability collapse
ROE at 0.0% signals near-zero returns on shareholder equity despite 12.7% net margin, indicating severe capital inefficiency or balance sheet distress.
high
Extreme leverage
Debt/Equity of -4.97 suggests inverted capital structure; company is heavily leveraged relative to equity base, raising refinancing risk.
moderate
Insider selling pressure
Sales of $4.86M versus buys of $0.49M over last 10 disclosures shows net insider selling, a mild negative signal on confidence.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-08-31 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
AutoZone generates strong free cash flow of $1.8B while maintaining a net margin of 12.7%, funding shareholder returns.
The company has shrunk share count by 2.2% while achieving 5-year revenue growth of 6.8% annually, boosting per-share value.
Why it could disappoint
The stock trades at 19.3x trailing P/E while consensus fair value sits 22.3% below the current $2939.85 price.
Return on equity of 0.0% signals the company is not generating profit on shareholder capital despite strong cash generation.
Forward P/E of 16.5x trades below sector median of 17.4x, yet the stock commands a 3.8% free cash flow yield.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Dec 8, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where AZO's valuation models land
Price
$3200.76
Model fair value
$2040
Model range
$1541 to $3064
Fair value $2040
Price $3201
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores