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ONL

Orion Properties Inc. Common Stock (ONL) fair value

Real Estate · REIT - Office · NYSE · United States
$2.19+1.86%
Market cap $125MNext earnings 2026-11-05Updated Oct 21, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 534% above our fair value
Price
$2.19
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $0.35
Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
Not used by alerts or posts.
Valued as a REIT (property company): Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionOrion Properties Inc. Common Stock (ONL)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$2.00
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $2.19 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Dividend discount.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
24
out of 100
Analysts
50% buy
2 covering
1-year return
-13.8%
Dividend yield
3.72%

Orion Properties Inc. Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Orion Properties owns and leases office buildings, a portfolio concentrated in the post-pandemic office market and now shrinking as the company sells assets to pay down debt. Its edge is hard to see from the outside: office REITs with long-dated leases and tenants that will not relocate can keep cash flow steady even while occupancy falls, and Orion's 53.6% gross margin and 9.9% operating margin show the properties still produce money at the property level. The core problem is the top line, with revenue down 7.4% and a negative 13.8% return on equity, so the balance sheet and lease rollover schedule matter more than any growth story. The score of 26 out of 100 and the absence from any index mean the market has already priced in a lot of distress. A deeper look would need to establish how much debt the sales must retire and whether the remaining portfolio can hold its rents as leases come up for renewal.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • severe
    Negative free cash flow
    Free cash flow is -$28.1M against a market cap of $112M, so the business is burning a quarter of its equity value each year.
  • high
    Net margin deeply negative
    Net margin is -71.3% with ROE at -13.8%, while operating margin is +9.9%, pointing to heavy non-operating charges or interest costs eating the profit.
  • high
    Revenue shrinking year over year
    Revenue fell 7.4% year over year even though the five-year revenue CAGR is +22.5%, so recent sales are moving in the wrong direction.
  • moderate
    Score down sharply in 90 days
    The ACCE score dropped 10 points from 34 to 24 over 90 days, with the momentum component at 17 and value at 23.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 21, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Analysts' mean price target of $3.50 sits 71.6% above the current $2.19 share price.
  • The latest quarter beat expectations, with earnings per share of 0.20 against an expected loss of 0.11.
  • The dividend yield of 3.9% gives holders a cash income while they wait for the business to improve.
Why it could disappoint
  • Revenue fell 7.4% year over year, a sharp reversal from average annual growth of 22.5% over five years.
  • Free cash flow over the last twelve months was negative at -$28M, and the free cash flow yield is -23.9%.
  • Net margin of -71.3% and return on equity of -13.8% show the business is losing money on its sales and its equity.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Nov 5, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

PRO

Ask ACCE

Valuation

INVESTOR
Where ONL's valuation models land
Price
$2.19
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $0.35
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Mixed50% buy · 2 covering analysts
● Strong buy 1● Buy 0● Hold 1● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
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Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+6.3%
1 month
-11.7%
3 months
-15.8%
6 months
-12.0%
YTD
-3.1%
1 year
-13.8%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$2.00first publication$2.10
7 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$0.32$0.32$2.36
5 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$0.32$0.33$2.41
28 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$0.33$0.34$2.51
20 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$0.34$0.33$2.44
17 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$0.33$0.34$2.47
14 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$0.34$0.41$2.56
19 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$0.41first publication$2.81

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth7Value23Quality48Momentum17Total24
Valuation
Trailing P/E
no data
Forward P/E
-8.4x
PEG
no data
P/B
0.22x
EV / Revenue
3.9x
Book value/sh
$11.09
Enterprise value
$558M
Profitability
ROE
-13.8%
FCF yield
-22.82%
ROIC
-10.3%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.77
Dividend yield
3.72%
Beta
1.61

Price

-15.8% · 1Y

Ask anything about ONL

Answered from Orion Properties Inc. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
ROEbetter than 33% of peers
low -18%-14%high 7%
Div yieldbetter than 50% of peers
low 0.0%3.7%high 9.1%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
ONL Orion Properties Inc. Common Stock$2.19----13.8%4824
NLOP Net Lease Office Properties Common Shares of Beneficial Interest$9.71----13.5%5638
ARM.MC Árima Real Estate SOCIMI, S.A.€11.40€844% above9.0x6.7%8164
VTR.PA Vitura SA€2.50----14.9%5046
NSI.AS NSI N.V.€17.30----2.5%6041
ACAN.PA Acanthe Développement€0.18----6.6%4738
BDN Brandywine Realty Trust Common Stock$2.95----18.1%3443

Sector report card

Where ONL ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • Business Wire•Oct 13, 2026
    Orion Properties Inc. Announces Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Webcast Dates
  • Business Wire•Aug 6, 2026
    Orion Properties Inc. Announces Second Quarter 2026 Results
  • Business Wire•Jul 14, 2026
    Orion Properties Inc. Announces Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Webcast Dates
3 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
33 filings
August 2026
Aug 6
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-08-06
View on SEC →
Aug 6
10-QQuarterly reportPeriod 2026-06-30
View on SEC →
June 2026
Jun 15
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-06-12
View on SEC →
30 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR