3 models fit NVIDIA Corporation Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
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Valued as a growth company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionNVIDIA Corporation Common Stock (NVDA)
Fair value (3 models)
$155
ACCE price target
$241
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST; previously $178 since 14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $269 since 3 Jun 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
Price used: $211 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
36.1% above
-26.5% to fair value
ACCE score
77
out of 100
Analysts
95% buy
62 covering
P/E
26.7x
forward 13.3x
1-year return
+15.8%
Dividend yield
0.47%
NVIDIA Corporation Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
NVIDIA designs the GPUs and the CUDA software stack that most large AI model training and inference runs on, and it sells them mainly as data-center accelerators and networking systems to hyperscalers and AI labs. Its moat is less the silicon than the installed software ecosystem: developers have spent years building on CUDA, which makes switching to rival accelerators costly and keeps NVIDIA's gross margin at 74.7%. The near-term driver is continued buildout of AI data centers, where revenue growth of 105.9% shows demand still outrunning supply. Even at a $5.25 trillion market cap, the stock trades at 27.5 times trailing earnings and 24.9 times forward earnings, a multiple that looks modest only if the current growth rate holds. The ROE of 117.2% and operating margin of 66.2% are exceptional, so the central question for a deeper look is how durable that growth is once the capex cycle matures.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Valuation disconnect with growth
Forward P/E of 14.4 appears cheap, but trailing P/E of 29.0 and P/S of 18.3 are elevated. Deceleration risk is material.
moderate
Heavy insider selling
Last 10 disclosures show $959.95M in sales versus $0 in buys. While insider ownership remains positive at +4.0%, the selling pattern warrants attention given the stock's valuation.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-07-31 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 105.9% year over year with a 5-year average of 100.0% annually, demonstrating sustained hypergrowth.
Net margin of 63.7% and ROE of 117.2% show exceptional profitability and capital efficiency unmatched in semiconductors.
Free cash flow of 41.8 billion dollars funds buybacks that reduced share count 1.2%, enhancing per-share value.
Why it could disappoint
Consensus fair value is 187.11 dollars, 18.4% below the current 229.28 dollar price across all three valuation models.
Forward P/E of 14.4x implies only 9.9% perpetual cash flow growth, far below the recent 105.9% revenue expansion rate.
Free cash flow yield of 0.8% is extremely low, offering minimal margin of safety if growth decelerates from current levels.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 18, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where NVDA's valuation models land
Price
$210.96
Model fair value
$155
Model range
$87.29 to $255
Fair value $155
Price $211
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores