Norfolk Southern Corporation Common Stock (NSC) fair value
Industrials · Railroads · NYSE · United States
$329.99-2.44%
Market cap $74.1BNext earnings 2026-10-22Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 85% above our fair value
Price
$329.99
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$178
Model range
$86.58 to $272
Fair value $178
Price $330
4 models fit Norfolk Southern Corporation Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 4 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Silver65
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionNorfolk Southern Corporation Common Stock (NSC)
Fair value (4 models)
$178
ACCE price target
$315
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 23 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST; previously $186 since 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 23 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $301 since 19 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
Price used: $330 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
85.1% above
-46.0% to fair value
ACCE score
58
out of 100
Analysts
24% buy
21 covering
P/E
28.2x
forward 23.0x
1-year return
+16.3%
Dividend yield
1.60%
Norfolk Southern Corporation Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Norfolk Southern operates freight rail networks across the eastern United States, moving coal, intermodal containers, and automotive shipments on roughly 19,500 miles of track. The company benefits from structural pricing power in rail transport, where high capital barriers and regulatory constraints limit competition and allow operators to pass through fuel and labor cost increases. Intermodal volumes are accelerating as shippers shift freight from trucking to rail, driven by driver shortages and fuel economics that favor rail by roughly 3 to 1 on a per-ton-mile basis. The forward PE of 22.3x reflects near-term margin recovery as the company laps operational disruptions from 2022 and realizes cost savings from network optimization, though the stock trades at a meaningful premium to historical averages despite modest organic growth prospects. At current valuations, the risk-reward appears balanced between the durability of rail economics and the cyclical sensitivity of freight volumes to industrial production.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings decline amid revenue growth
Revenue up 11.4% YoY but earnings down 4.4%. Margin compression or one-time charges warrant investigation into sustainability of profitability.
moderate
Valuation above fair value estimate
Limited upside cushion; downside to $255.00 floor represents 20% risk.
moderate
Quality score lags growth and margin scores
ACCE Quality component at 77 is solid, but Growth at 40 and Valuation at 50 suggest the stock is pricing in optimism not yet reflected in fundamentals.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue surged 11.4% year over year while net margin expanded to 21.0%, showing pricing power and operational efficiency.
Free cash flow of 2.2B dollars funds dividends and buybacks that reduced share count 0.7% last year.
Return on equity of 17.0% and return on invested capital of 7.2% demonstrate capital deployment well above the cost of debt.
Why it could disappoint
Consensus fair value of 187.76 dollars sits 40.9% below the current 317.79 dollar share price across all four valuation models.
Free cash flow yield of 3.0% is modest for a capital-intensive business, and forward P/E of 22.3x trades near sector median despite slowing growth.
Debt to equity of 1.10 leaves limited cushion if freight volumes weaken and margin compression continues eroding earnings growth.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where NSC's valuation models land
Price
$329.99
Model fair value
$178
Model range
$86.58 to $272
Fair value $178
Price $330
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.
Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores