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CP
ACCE-researched

Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited Common Shares (CP) fair value

Industrials · Railroads · NYSE · United States
$89.51-1.22%
Market cap $79.7BNext earnings 2026-10-28Updated Oct 19, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 53% above our fair value
Price
$89.51
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$58.41
Model range
$34.39 to $85.23
Fair value $58.41
Price $89.51
4 models fit Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited Common Shares and they partly agree: 2 of 4 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Bronze52
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionCanadian Pacific Kansas City Limited Common Shares (CP)
Fair value (4 models)
$58.41
ACCE price target
$88.60
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CEST; previously $62.22 since 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $86.00 since 21 May 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CEST.
Price used: $89.51 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
53.2% above
-34.7% to fair value
ACCE score
60
out of 100
Analysts
77% buy
30 covering
P/E
29.1x
forward 20.7x
1-year return
+17.9%
Dividend yield
1.08%

Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited Common Shares in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Canadian Pacific Kansas City runs the only rail network linking Canada, the United States and Mexico, moving grain, potash, intermodal containers and automotive freight over roughly 20,000 route miles. The network's single-line reach, which lets a shipment travel from Vancouver to Monterrey without interchange, is the core moat, and it is hard to replicate because the right-of-way cannot be rebuilt. The main near-term driver is operating leverage from the 2023 merger, which should keep operating margin, at 39.0%, well above what a trucking-exposed peer could match. Revenue growth of 12.6% is the strongest number in the set, while the forward P/E of 20.7 compares with a trailing 27.9, implying earnings expected to rise sharply over the next year. Weak ROE of 8.2%, reflecting a heavy asset base and acquisition-related goodwill, is the figure a PM will need to test before going further.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Earnings decline amid revenue growth
    Revenue up 12.6% YoY but earnings down 13.5%. Margin compression or one-time charges warrant investigation; operating leverage should flow through.
  • moderate
    Quality score lagging growth
    ACCE Quality subscore 77/100 is solid but Growth 40/100 is weak relative to 12.6% revenue CAGR, signalling durability concerns.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Revenue has grown 12.6% year over year with a five-year average of 14.4%, demonstrating consistent expansion.
  • Net margin of 25.0% and free cash flow of CAD 2.2B over the last twelve months show strong profitability and cash generation.
Why it could disappoint
  • Trailing P/E of 27.2x and forward P/E of 20.7x exceed the sector median of 24.1x, pricing in significant future growth.
  • Consensus fair value of $62.22 is 26.3% below the current share price of $84.46, suggesting material overvaluation.
  • ROE of 8.2% and ROIC of 4.9% lag capital costs, indicating the company is not generating adequate returns on invested capital.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Oct 28, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

PRO

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where CP's valuation models land
Price
$89.51
Model fair value
$58.41
Model range
$34.39 to $85.23
Fair value $58.41
Price $89.51
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.

Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish77% buy · 30 covering analysts
● Strong buy 14● Buy 9● Hold 6● Sell 1● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
Do politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+2.5%
1 month
+1.4%
3 months
-3.1%
6 months
+3.0%
YTD
+21.6%
1 year
+17.9%

SEC filings

Recent ACCE blog coverage

  • $CP ACCE Score Jumps 10 Points to 55 - What's Driving It
    Canadian Pacific Kansas City's ACCE composite score rose from 45 to 55. Here's what the subscore data tells us about the move and what to watch next.
    2026-07-07

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CESTRatingOvervaluedfirst publication$87.36
19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CESTFair value$58.41$62.22$87.36
18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$88.60$86.00$87.36
11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$62.22$60.63$84.46
1 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$60.63$61.51$123
26 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$61.51$62.15$123
14 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$62.15$63.31$124
10 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$63.31$64.12$126
5 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$64.12$62.58$126
3 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$62.58$64.63$124

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth40Value51Quality77Momentum70Total60
Valuation
Trailing P/E
29.1x
Forward P/E
20.7x
PEG
2.22
P/B
2.32x
EV / Revenue
8.7x
Book value/sh
C$37.64
Enterprise value
$95.4B
Profitability
ROE
8.2%
FCF yield
2.00%
ROIC
4.9%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.51
Dividend yield
1.08%
Beta
1.22

Price

+18.6% · 1Y

Ask anything about CP

Answered from Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited Common Shares fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 33% of peers
low 21.8x29.1xhigh 34.3x
ROEbetter than 17% of peers
low 8%8%high 24%
Div yieldbetter than 50% of peers
low 0.0%1.1%high 2.1%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
CP Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited Common Shares$89.51$5853% above29.1x8.2%7760
CP.TO Canadian Pacific Kansas CityC$126.93C$8450% above29.5x8.2%7760
CNR.TO Canadian National RailwayC$175.01C$12145% above22.5x22.0%8272
CNI Canadian National Railway Company Common Stock$124.93$1177% above21.8x22.0%8270
NSC Norfolk Southern Corporation Common Stock$338.23$17890% above28.2x17.0%7758
CSX CSX Corporation Common Stock$51.67$25104% above26.9x24.4%8271
WAB Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation Common Stock$276.47$14985% above34.3x12.2%6367

Sector report card

Where CP ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • PR Newswire•Oct 13, 2026
    CPKC Holiday Train begins 182-stop journey of music and giving Nov. 19
  • PR Newswire•Oct 2, 2026
    CPKC sets new September and quarterly grain records in Canada, U.S.
  • PR Newswire•Oct 1, 2026
    CPKC reaches tentative collective agreement with BLET
14 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
21 filings of 36
September 2026
Sep 29
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-09-28
View on SEC →
July 2026
Jul 30
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-07-29
View on SEC →
Jul 30
10-QQuarterly reportPeriod 2026-06-30
View on SEC →
18 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR