5 models fit National Fuel Gas Company Common Stock and they disagree: 2 of 5 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
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Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionNational Fuel Gas Company Common Stock (NFG)
Fair value (5 models)
$69.63
ACCE price target
$80.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $68.86 since 29 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 15:06 CEST.
Price used: $80.53 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, Dividend discount, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
15.7% above
-13.5% to fair value
ACCE score
57
out of 100
Analysts
50% buy
4 covering
P/E
11.2x
forward 10.0x
1-year return
-1.9%
Dividend yield
2.67%
National Fuel Gas Company Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
National Fuel Gas is a regulated-style natural gas utility and pipeline holding company, with local distribution in New York and Pennsylvania, Seneca Resources upstream gas production in Appalachia, and midstream pipeline and storage assets. Its moat is the integrated footprint: owning the Appalachian wells, the gathering and transmission pipes that move the gas, and the distribution customers at the end of the line gives it a cost and capacity position that standalone producers or utilities lack. Revenue growth is slow at 1.1%, so the investment case rests on margin and cash generation rather than top-line expansion, with a 40.1% operating margin and 19.6% ROE supporting that view. The stock screens cheap on earnings, at 11.1x trailing and 9.8x forward, which is the valuation question a PM needs to test against the commodity exposure in Seneca and the regulatory returns on the utility side. The composite score of 55/100 and absence from major indices argue for treating this as a names-to-research list entry rather than a high-conviction idea until the gas price and rate case assumptions are checked.