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Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionYPF Sociedad Anonima Common Stock (YPF)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$60.00
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 25 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $50.68 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: EV/EBITDA comparison and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
79
out of 100
Analysts
77% buy
13 covering
P/E
26.7x
forward 9.2x
1-year return
+88.5%
Dividend yield
0.00%
YPF Sociedad Anonima Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
YPF is Argentina's largest integrated oil and gas company, running upstream output from the Vaca Muerta shale formation alongside refining, fuel retail under the YPF brand, and power generation. Its advantage is scale and position: it holds the biggest share of Vaca Muerta acreage and the country's main refining and fuel distribution network, so growth in unconventional oil and gas flows through a single domestic operator. Revenue grew 72.2% over the period, and at a 27.5% operating margin and a 9.5x forward P/E, the market is pricing in much less earnings progress than the top line implies. The trailing P/E of 27.4 against that forward multiple tells you earnings are expected to recover sharply, so the question for a deeper look is how much of that recovery is credible given Argentina's macro and currency backdrop. With a 7.3% ROE and a $20.4B market cap, the name is worth examining mainly for whether the Vaca Muerta buildout converts into sustained returns on capital.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Extreme short interest spike
Short interest at 7236.3% is nonsensical and signals data error or extreme distress. Verify actual short float before trading.
high
Earnings volatility and quality concern
YoY earnings growth of 2550.7% with Quality score only 59/100 suggests one-time gains or accounting anomalies, not sustainable earnings power.
moderate
Valuation disconnect at extremes
Forward P/E of 9.1 vs P/E of 26.3 implies market expects sharp earnings decline. Fair value range $38-$82 is wide; current $50.04 near midpoint offers limited margin of safety.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue surged 72.2% year over year with a five year average of 90.2% annual growth, showing sustained expansion.
Analyst consensus is strongly bullish, with 77% rating the stock Buy or Strong Buy and a mean price target 22.7% above current price.
Forward P/E of 9.1x is cheap relative to trailing P/E of 26.3x, suggesting earnings growth is expected to compress valuation.
Why it could disappoint
Return on invested capital is negative at -6.3%, meaning the company destroys value on incremental capital deployed.
Net margin of 4.0% is thin, and debt to equity of 0.85 leaves limited room for margin compression or currency stress.
Trailing P/E of 26.3x is elevated, and recent earnings beat of 8.1% may already be priced into current valuations.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 6, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where YPF's valuation models land
Price
$50.68
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
$13.68
Model
Fair value
Upside
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores