3 models fit Murphy Oil Corporation Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Silver69
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionMurphy Oil Corporation Common Stock (MUR)
Fair value (3 models)
$27.02
ACCE price target
$34.60
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST; previously $28.16 since 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST.
Price used: $44.34 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
64.1% above
-39.1% to fair value
ACCE score
84
out of 100
Analysts
19% buy
16 covering
P/E
22.0x
forward 11.6x
1-year return
+50.7%
Dividend yield
3.30%
Murphy Oil Corporation Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
Overview
ACCE thesis
Murphy Oil is an upstream producer whose output comes mostly from the Eagle Ford shale in South Texas and offshore Gulf of Mexico fields, with a smaller position in Canada's Montney formation. The company runs the operated Eagle Ford and Gulf assets itself, which gives it control over well timing and cost, and its 82.7% gross margin and 37.9% operating margin sit well above what most of its E&P peers report. Revenue grew 35.6% over the last period, and with a forward P/E of 13.4 against a trailing 19.7, the market is pricing in earnings recovery rather than extrapolating the recent peak. The return on equity of 6.5% is modest, so the case rests on whether that margin structure converts into durable free cash flow and debt reduction rather than on profitability already proven through a full cycle. Worth a deeper look to test how much of the forward earnings step-up depends on commodity prices holding.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Heavy short interest
Short interest sits at 10.2% of ownership. That raises squeeze risk in both directions and makes the price more sensitive to news flow.
moderate
Price well above valuation
The stock trades 64.1% above the model fair value of $27.02, and 28.2% above the ACCE price target of $34.60. Sizing should reflect that the price has run ahead of these estimates.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 20, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-16 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $396M, giving the company real cash to fund dividends and debt reduction.
Shares trade at 13.4 times forward earnings, below the sector median forward multiple of 16.2 times.
The diluted share count fell 4.6% last fiscal year, so each remaining share claims a bigger slice of the business.
Why it could disappoint
Return on invested capital of 1.2% sits far below any reasonable cost of capital, so new money is earning very little.
The price sits 64.1% above the model fair value of $27.02, and the analysts' mean price target implies only a small move.
Only 19% of analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, and a 6.4% yearly cash flow growth rate is needed to justify today's price.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 4, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
Walk me through this stock
Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.
PRO
Ask ACCE
Valuation
INVESTOR
Where MUR's valuation models land
Price
$44.34
Model fair value
$27.02
Model range
$13.74 to $43.22
Fair value $27.02
Price $44.34
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
Create a free account: 5 full stock pages a month, no card.
See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.
Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores