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MRP

Millrose Properties Inc. Class A Common Stock (MRP) fair value

Real Estate · REIT - Residential · NYSE · United States
$23.86-0.46%
Market cap $4.0BNext earnings 2026-10-27Updated Oct 16, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 17% below our fair value
Price
$23.86
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$28.81
Model range
$26.31 to $31.31
Fair value $28.81
Price $23.86
2 models fit Millrose Properties Inc. Class A Common Stock and they agree: 2 of 2 land within 15% of the average. The price is below every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Discount(i)
Valued as a REIT (property company): Price to FFO, Dividend discount, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionMillrose Properties Inc. Class A Common Stock (MRP)
Fair value (2 models)
$28.81
ACCE price target
$24.00
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $37.79 since 5 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $23.86 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Dividend discount, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Price to FFO.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
17.2% below
+20.8% to fair value
ACCE score
62
out of 100
Analysts
83% buy
6 covering
P/E
8.3x
forward 7.4x
1-year return
-27.3%
Dividend yield
13.18%

Millrose Properties Inc. Class A Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Millrose Properties owns and operates single-family rental homes, a residential REIT niche that has been pulled toward the institutional buy-to-rent model since the large US landlords scaled up. The core advantage is the asset base itself: an 85% operating margin and 8.1% ROE on a roughly $3.7B market cap point to a portfolio that generates rent with little overhead, though the company's young age means its track record is short and its book is still settling. Revenue grew 32.1% over the last year, which gives the story its growth leg, and that growth is what a PM needs to see converted into per-share earnings and cash flow before the thesis holds. The P/E of 8.2 sits well below what most residential REITs trade at, but a forward P/E of 0.0 is not a usable signal here (it likely reflects missing consensus estimates rather than a real multiple), so the cheapness claim needs rebuilding from FFO and NAV work. The score of 62 and absence from any major index make this a name where the deeper look is about verifying the earnings base and rent-growth trajectory, not a conclusion in itself.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Score down sharply
    ACCE score fell from 79 to 62 over 90 days, with Momentum at 17/100. Something in the price or trend data has deteriorated faster than fundamentals.
  • moderate
    Short interest elevated
    Short interest sits at 0.6% of shares. Modest, but worth weighing alongside the weak momentum score when sizing a position.
  • moderate
    Price below ACCE target
    The stock trades 0.6% below the ACCE price target of $24.00, and 17.2% below the model fair value of $28.81. Gap to model value is wide, so the market is pricing in a concern the model isn't capturing.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 19, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Revenue grew 32.1% year over year in the June 2026 10-Q, showing strong top-line momentum.
  • Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $3.7B, and the stock's free cash flow yield stands at 98.3%.
  • The stock trades 17.2% below the model fair value of $28.81, and five of six analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy.
Why it could disappoint
  • Return on equity is only 8.1% and return on invested capital just 3.9%, so the business earns thin returns on its capital.
  • The stock trades 0.6% below the ACCE price target of $24.00, which leaves limited room for upside on our own estimate.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Oct 27, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

PRO

Ask ACCE

Valuation

INVESTOR
Where MRP's valuation models land
Price
$23.86
Model fair value
$28.81
Model range
$26.31 to $31.31
Fair value $28.81
Price $23.86
The price is below the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Price to FFO
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish83% buy · 6 covering analysts
● Strong buy 5● Buy 0● Hold 1● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
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Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+6.0%
1 month
-11.0%
3 months
-16.3%
6 months
-22.4%
YTD
-20.1%
1 year
-27.3%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$28.56$37.79$22.36
11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$24.00first publication$22.36
5 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$37.79$38.59$24.61
28 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$38.59$38.12$27.19
26 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$38.12$38.80$27.06
20 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$38.80$39.57$28.87
10 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$39.57$40.50$30.78
7 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$40.50$41.10$32.02
30 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$41.10$43.97$30.61
27 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$43.97$42.55$30.67

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth84Value65Quality81Momentum17Total62
Valuation
Trailing P/E
8.3x
Forward P/E
7.4x
PEG
0.65
P/B
0.76x
EV / Revenue
9.1x
Book value/sh
$35.24
Enterprise value
$6.9B
Profitability
ROE
8.1%
FCF yield
95.79%
ROIC
3.9%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.36
Dividend yield
13.18%
Beta
no data

Price

-26.4% · 1Y

Ask anything about MRP

Answered from Millrose Properties Inc. Class A Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 40% of peers
low 0.0x8.3xhigh 83.1x
ROEbetter than 83% of peers
low 0%8%high 348%
Div yieldbetter than 83% of peers
low 2.0%13.2%high 19.2%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
MRP Millrose Properties Inc. Class A Common Stock$23.86$2917% below8.3x8.1%8162
DTW DTE Energy Company 2017 Series E 5.25% Junior Subordinated Debentures due 2077$17.76--2.9x7.5%2623
IRT Independence Realty Trust Inc. Common Stock$15.17--83.1x1.3%6239
UNMA Unum Group 6.250% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2058$20.46$3947% below4.2x0.0%3234
UZE Array Digital Infrastructure Inc. 5.500% Senior Notes due 2070$15.21$2437% below-348.3%5729
ALTA.PA Altarea SCA€73.30--48.4x3.5%3737
JAN Janus Living Inc. Class A-1 Common Stock$28.64---0.5%2747

Sector report card

Where MRP ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • Business Wire•Oct 7, 2026
    Millrose Properties Announces Date of Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call
  • Business Wire•Sep 23, 2026
    Millrose Properties Announces Quarterly Dividend Payment
  • Business Wire•Sep 22, 2026
    Millrose Properties, Inc. Announces Pricing of $1.0 Billion Senior Notes Offering
8 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
October 2026
Oct 6
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-10-06
View on SEC →
September 2026
Sep 23
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-09-23
View on SEC →
Sep 23
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-09-22
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR