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MMS
ACCE-researched

Maximus Inc. Common Stock (MMS) fair value

Industrials · Specialty Business Services · NYSE · United States
$63.02-0.57%
Market cap $3.3BNext earnings 2026-11-19Updated Oct 21, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 40% below our fair value
Price
$63.02
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$106
Model range
$38.55 to $195
Fair value $106
Price $63.02
5 models fit Maximus Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 5 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)Silver67
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionMaximus Inc. Common Stock (MMS)
Fair value (5 models)
$106
ACCE price target
$74.00
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST; previously $111 since 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $60.00 since 28 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST.
Price used: $63.02 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
40.4% below
+67.9% to fair value
ACCE score
54
out of 100
Analysts
100% buy
2 covering
P/E
9.4x
forward 19.1x
1-year return
-28.1%
Dividend yield
2.03%

Maximus Inc. Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Maximus runs government health and human services programmes under contract, including benefits administration, call centres and eligibility systems for US federal and state agencies. Long contracts and the difficulty of replacing an incumbent operator provide stable revenue. Growth depends on new awards and the rebid cycle. Revenue fell 5.1%, but ROE is 21.1% and the trailing multiple is 8.6x, against a forward multiple of 19.1x that implies lower earnings ahead.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 14, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Revenue contraction with margin offset
    Revenue down 5.1% YoY and 2.1% QoQ, yet earnings up 4.8%. Margin expansion masking underlying demand weakness; unsustainable if top-line deterioration continues.
  • high
    Quality score collapse
    ACCE Q-score only 64/100, dragging overall score to 52. Suggests earnings quality or cash conversion concerns despite positive FCF of $354M.
  • moderate
    Elevated leverage and short interest
    Debt/Equity at 1.00 with 11.3% short interest. Combined with revenue decline, limits financial flexibility if margin gains reverse.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-09 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Stock trades at 7.1x forward earnings, well below the 23.9x sector median, suggesting deep undervaluation.
  • Management has shrunk share count by 5.8% while generating 11.4% free cash flow yield, returning capital efficiently.
  • ROE of 21.1% and five-year revenue growth of 5.5% per year show the business has historically created shareholder value.
Why it could disappoint
  • Revenue fell 5.1% year over year as government contracts roll off, signaling near-term headwinds from the core business.
  • Forward P/E of 7.1x versus trailing 8.8x implies the market expects earnings to decline, not grow.
  • Debt to equity of 1.00 limits financial flexibility if contract losses accelerate or margins compress during re-bidding cycles.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Nov 19, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where MMS's valuation models land
Price
$63.02
Model fair value
$106
Model range
$38.55 to $195
Fair value $106
Price $63.02
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish100% buy · 2 covering analysts
● Strong buy 0● Buy 2● Hold 0● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
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Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+2.5%
1 month
+17.2%
3 months
+5.6%
6 months
-3.7%
YTD
-27.0%
1 year
-28.1%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CESTRatingUndervaluedfirst publication$61.09
21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CESTFair value$106$111$61.09
18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CESTACCE price target$74.00$60.00$61.47
16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$111$112$57.76
12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$112$76.86$59.39
8 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$76.86$87.48$54.68
5 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$87.48$88.94$52.65
1 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$88.94$75.82$53.07
28 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$60.00first publication$52.61
26 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$75.82$88.35$52.62

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth19Value100Quality64Momentum31Total54
Valuation
Trailing P/E
9.4x
Forward P/E
19.1x
PEG
1.95
P/B
1.66x
EV / Revenue
0.9x
Book value/sh
$33.24
Enterprise value
$4.6B
Profitability
ROE
21.1%
FCF yield
11.03%
ROIC
8.4%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.86
Dividend yield
2.03%
Beta
0.59

Price

-28.2% · 1Y

Ask anything about MMS

Answered from Maximus Inc. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 100% of peers
low 9.4x9.4xhigh 151.8x
ROEbetter than 100% of peers
low 2%21%high 21%
Div yieldbetter than 67% of peers
low 0.0%2.0%high 2.1%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
MMS Maximus Inc. Common Stock$63.02$10640% below9.4x21.1%6454
ABM ABM Industries Incorporated Common Stock$53.67$523% above19.4x9.2%3565
MTO.L Mitie Group plc£2.11£28% above35.1x18.8%4563
SRP.L Serco Group plc£2.81£424% below18.8x17.6%4459
CBZ CBIZ Inc. Common Stock$54.94$509% above23.1x6.5%4351
FA First Advantage Corporation Common Stock$21.25$1631% above151.8x1.9%4168
AZZ AZZ Inc.$132.36$10922% above23.8x12.3%6463

Sector report card

Where MMS ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • Business Wire•Oct 8, 2026
    Maximus Schedules Fiscal 2026 Fourth Quarter and Year End Conference Call
  • Business Wire•Oct 5, 2026
    Maximus Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend of $0.33 Per Share
  • Business Wire•Aug 6, 2026
    Maximus Reports Fiscal Year 2026 Third Quarter Results
1 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
39 filings
October 2026
Oct 20
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-10-19
View on SEC →
Oct 2
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-30
View on SEC →
Oct 2
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-30
View on SEC →
36 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR