Mueller Industries Inc. Common Stock (MLI) fair value
Industrials · Metal Fabrication · NYSE · United States
$54.11-0.77%
Market cap $12.1BNext earnings 2026-10-20Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 24% above our fair value
Price
$54.11
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$43.65
Model range
$29.59 to $53.15
Fair value $43.65
Price $54.11
4 models fit Mueller Industries Inc. Common Stock and they partly agree: 2 of 4 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Premium(i)Bronze42
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionMueller Industries Inc. Common Stock (MLI)
Fair value (4 models)
$43.65
ACCE price target
$63.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 23 Oct 2026, 11:04 CEST; previously $42.69 since 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 21 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $61.00 since 26 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 17:05 CEST.
Price used: $54.11 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
24.0% above
-19.3% to fair value
ACCE score
68
out of 100
Analysts
100% buy
2 covering
P/E
14.7x
forward 18.2x
1-year return
+3.9%
Dividend yield
1.13%
Mueller Industries Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Mueller Industries makes copper tube, fittings, and brass rod for plumbing, HVAC and refrigeration, and it is one of the largest copper fabricators in North America. The moat is mostly scale and vertical integration: it recycles scrap and sources raw metal into its own mills, which keeps it cost-competitive against smaller converters and gives it a steady supply of product for the construction and replacement markets. Revenue grew 31.6% in the latest reported period, and the 19.5% operating margin and 26.3% ROE suggest the growth is being converted into profit rather than bought with price cuts. At a trailing P/E of 13.9 and a forward P/E of 11.6, the market is pricing in a flattening of earnings, which deserves testing against how much of the recent growth came from copper price pass-through rather than volume. The stock carries no index membership, so the name is likely under-followed, and a 68/100 score puts it in the group worth a closer look on the margin and cash-flow questions before any sizing decision.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Earnings missed estimates
Q4 2026 EPS came in 13.0% below consensus, while revenue grew 31.6% YoY. Earnings only grew 6.4% YoY, so the top-line growth is not converting to profit.
moderate
Insiders selling, no buys
Last 10 disclosed insider transactions total $29.40M in sales and $0.00M in buys. Insiders own only 2.1% of the company.
moderate
Price trades above model fair value
The stock trades 24.0% above the model fair value of $43.65, though it sits 14.1% below the ACCE price target of $63.00.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 23, 2026 · figures from 2026-09-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 31.6% year over year, well above its 11.7% average annual pace over five years.
Free cash flow of $687M over the last twelve months gives a 5.5% yield at the current share price.
Why it could disappoint
Latest earnings per share missed expectations by 13.0%, coming in at 1.00 against 1.15 expected.
The stock trades 24.0% above the model fair value of $43.65, and the consensus of all four valuation models sits below the share price.
The share price implies 6.1% yearly cash flow growth forever, a high bar for a business with a 17.3% net margin.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Walk me through this stock
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where MLI's valuation models land
Price
$54.11
Model fair value
$43.65
Model range
$29.59 to $53.15
Fair value $43.65
Price $54.11
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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