Carpenter Technology Corporation Common Stock (CRS) fair value
Industrials · Metal Fabrication · NYSE · United States
$284.66-2.60%
Market cap $14.1BNext earnings 2026-10-22Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 216% above our fair value
Price
$284.66
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$89.95
Model range
$76.60 to $103
Fair value $89.95
Price $285
2 models fit Carpenter Technology Corporation Common Stock and they agree: 2 of 2 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionCarpenter Technology Corporation Common Stock (CRS)
Fair value (2 models)
$89.95
ACCE price target
$387
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 23 Oct 2026, 10:03 CEST; previously $191 since 29 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $500 since 22 May 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 23 Oct 2026, 10:03 CEST.
Price used: $285 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: EV/EBITDA comparison and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
216.5% above
-68.4% to fair value
ACCE score
55
out of 100
Analysts
88% buy
8 covering
P/E
25.1x
forward 17.8x
1-year return
-5.2%
Dividend yield
0.27%
Carpenter Technology Corporation Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Carpenter Technology makes specialty alloys, including high-performance stainless and nickel-based grades, along with the precision-rolled strip and bar that go into jet engine components, medical devices and aerospace structures. Its edge is qualification: aerospace and medical customers approve a specific alloy from a specific mill, and that approval takes years and is costly to lose, which supports pricing power and a 30.6% gross margin. The near-term driver is the aerospace production ramp, where engine and airframe makers are pushing to lift output and need certified material to do it. Revenue growth of 12.6% and a 24.1% operating margin show that the ramp is reaching the income statement, with ROE at 25.8%. The stock trades at 23.4 times forward earnings against 35.8 times trailing, so the market is pricing in a sizeable earnings step-up, and whether that arrives is the question to test before going further.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Valuation disconnect with quality
P/E 36.7 and EV/EBITDA 23.6 are elevated despite ACCE Value score of 35/100.
high
Heavy insider selling
Last 10 disclosures show $54.64M in sales, zero buys. Insiders liquidating while stock trades below model fair value signals concern about near-term momentum or valuation sustainability.
moderate
Score deterioration and quality softness
ACCE score fell 6 points in 90 days (66 to 60). Quality subscore 81 is solid, but Momentum 46 is weak. Earnings growth +46.4% YoY may not be sustainable given forward P/E compression to 24.3.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Net margin of 17.0% and ROE of 25.8% show Carpenter generates exceptional returns on capital deployed.
Revenue grew 12.6% year over year while free cash flow reached $239M, funding shareholder returns and growth.
Forward P/E of 24.3x matches sector median at 24.1x while 88% of analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy.
Why it could disappoint
Trailing P/E of 36.7x reflects a 49.2% premium to analyst mean price target, leaving limited upside.
Free cash flow yield of 1.2% is thin relative to the 5.2% risk-free rate, offering poor cash return.
The stock prices in only 9.8% annual cash flow growth forever, leaving no margin for disappointment.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where CRS's valuation models land
Price
$284.66
Model fair value
$89.95
Model range
$76.60 to $103
Fair value $89.95
Price $285
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores