2 models fit Melia Hotels International and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Bronze52
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionMelia Hotels International (MEL.MC)
Fair value (2 models)
€10.82
ACCE price target
€10.80
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 24 Oct 2026, 18:04 CEST; previously €11.19 since 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 24 Oct 2026, 18:04 CEST.
Price used: €10.08 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
6.9% below
+7.4% to fair value
ACCE score
62
out of 100
P/E
13.3x
forward 12.5x
1-year return
+37.0%
Dividend yield
1.72%
Melia Hotels International in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Melia Hotels International runs a multi-brand hotel portfolio across Spain, the Caribbean, Latin America and Europe, with resort and city properties under the Meliá, ME, Gran Meliá and Paradisus names, plus a franchise and management business that earns fees without owning the real estate. The asset-light mix is the structural point: management and franchise contracts carry recurring fee income and far less capital than owned hotels, which helps explain a 17.2% operating margin and a 17.1% ROE. Revenue growth of 8.7% sits alongside a forward P/E of 12.5 against a trailing 13.4, so the market is pricing in modest earnings growth rather than a re-rating. What makes it worth a look now is that a business with this margin profile and growth is trading at a low-teens multiple, and the company is not in any major index, which may keep coverage thin and the price less efficient. The obvious things to test are how much of the 8.7% growth is pricing versus room count, how exposed the Caribbean and Latin American resorts are to tourism shocks, and how much debt the owned assets carry.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Heavy leverage
Debt/Equity of 2.88 is high for a hotel operator, and earnings fell 13.4% YoY while revenue grew 8.7%. Thin net margin of 4.1% leaves little cushion if occupancy softens.
moderate
Earnings diverging from revenue
Revenue rose 8.7% but earnings fell 13.4%, so profit conversion is weakening. Worth checking whether this is cost pressure or one-off items.
moderate
Concentrated insider ownership
Insiders hold 64.8% of the shares, leaving a small free float of roughly 13% after institutions. That can mean thin liquidity and limited trading depth.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow of EUR 338M over the last twelve months gives a 14.8% yield at the current share price.
Revenue grew 8.7% year over year, and the stock trades at 12.5x forward earnings against a sector median of 18.1x.
Trades 6.9% below the model fair value of €10.82, and the analysts' mean target sits 9.8% above the share price.
Why it could disappoint
Debt to equity of 2.88 leaves the balance sheet heavily leveraged, which magnifies trouble if earnings keep falling.
The price implies cash flow growth of 14.2% a year forever, and only 2 of 4 valuation models feed the consensus.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 3, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where MEL.MC's valuation models land
Price
€10.08
Model fair value
€10.82
Model range
€8.16 to €13.04
Fair value €10.82
Price €10.08
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Analysts
Wall Street consensus
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+Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
+Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
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