3 models fit Landstar System Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
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Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionLandstar System Inc. Common Stock (LSTR)
Fair value (3 models)
$123
ACCE price target
$150
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST; previously $127 since 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 28 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST.
Price used: $166 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
34.5% above
-25.7% to fair value
ACCE score
61
out of 100
Analysts
22% buy
18 covering
P/E
43.0x
forward 21.6x
1-year return
+27.6%
Dividend yield
1.04%
Landstar System Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Landstar System is an asset-light freight broker and third-party capacity provider, moving truckload, intermodal and specialty freight through a network of independent agents and owner-operators rather than its own fleet. Its edge is the agent network and carrier base, which lets it flex capacity up or down without carrying the fixed costs of trucks and drivers, a model that tends to hold up better than asset carriers when freight cycles turn. The near-term driver is the freight recovery and any tightening in truckload capacity, which would lift pricing on the spot and contract business it brokers. The stock screens expensive on trailing earnings at 43.3x against a forward multiple of 21.8x, so the market is pricing a sharp earnings rebound, and revenue growth of 18.1% with a 15.0% ROE shows the business is already expanding. Thin margins (4.6% operating, 19.0% gross) mean small changes in rates or purchased transportation costs will move profit a lot, which is the core question for a deeper look. The score of 63/100 and absence from any major index make this a name to examine on its earnings trajectory rather than a finished case.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Valuation disconnect
Current price $169.11 sits at top of ACCE fair value range ($118-$185); trailing P/E 43.9 vs forward 22.1 signals market pricing in sustained earnings growth that may not materialize.
moderate
5-year revenue decline
5y revenue CAGR is -13.9% despite recent YoY +18.1% growth. Suggests cyclical recovery rather than structural improvement; sustainability unclear.
moderate
Insider selling pressure
Last 10 disclosures show $2.75M in insider sales against $0 in buys. No offsetting accumulation by management at current valuations.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 12, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue surged 18.1% year over year, demonstrating strong near-term demand recovery in the freight cycle.
Management returned 2.3% of shares while maintaining a fortress balance sheet with 0.17 debt to equity.
Return on equity of 15.0% and return on invested capital of 11.1% show efficient capital deployment.
Why it could disappoint
Five year average revenue declined 13.9% annually, suggesting the current rebound may be cyclical rather than structural.
Consensus fair value is 25.0% below the current share price of $169.11, with 3 of 4 valuation models agreeing.
At 43.9x trailing P/E and a 1.7% free cash flow yield, the stock prices in 5.8% perpetual cash growth despite thin 2.6% net margins.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 27, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where LSTR's valuation models land
Price
$165.79
Model fair value
$123
Model range
$80.68 to $155
Fair value $123
Price $166
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
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