Lam Research Corporation Common Stock (LRCX) fair value

ACCE thesis

Lam Research makes the etch and deposition tools that cut and layer the transistor structures inside advanced logic and memory chips, and it sells a large share of its revenue into wafer fab expansion at TSMC, Samsung and the memory makers. Its moat rests on process know-how and installed-base service: once a fab qualifies a Lam etch step, switching tools means requalifying a process that runs on millions of wafers, which keeps share sticky and supports a 50.5% gross margin. The near-term driver is the shift to gate-all-around transistors and higher-layer-count 3D NAND, both of which require more etch and deposition steps per wafer than the previous generation. Revenue growth of 30.0% and a 37.4% operating margin show that this demand is already reaching the income statement rather than sitting in backlog. At 33.7 times forward earnings against 52.3 times trailing, the market is pricing in a sharp step-up in profit that the company has yet to deliver, so the thesis depends on whether the forward numbers hold through the next capex cycle. Worth a deeper look to test that durability against wafer fab equipment spending plans for the next two years.