ASML

ACCE thesis

ASML manufactures the lithography machines that etch circuit patterns onto silicon wafers - and its extreme ultraviolet (EUV) systems are the only tools on earth capable of printing the sub-5nm geometries that define leading-edge chips at TSMC, Samsung, and Intel. That monopoly on EUV isn't a temporary lead; the physics and cumulative R&D embedded in these machines represent two decades of development that no competitor has credibly replicated. The next catalyst is High-NA EUV, a next-generation system priced at roughly €350M per unit versus ~€200M for standard EUV, which Intel has already taken delivery of and TSMC is evaluating for 2nm-and-beyond nodes. The near-term setup is actually more interesting after the stock sold off ~30% from its 2024 highs following a botched earnings pre-release that spooked the market on 2025 order timing - the underlying backlog remains above €36B, which is nearly two years of revenue visibility. At 44x forward earnings, you're paying a premium, but a 52% ROE and 36% operating margins on what is functionally an unregulated monopoly in critical infrastructure make the multiple defensible.

• high
  Extreme valuation multiples

  P/E 61x, EV/EBITDA 50x, P/S 20.6x leave minimal margin of safety; ACCE Value score is just 19/100.
• moderate
  Sequential revenue deceleration

  QoQ revenue growth of -9.8% signals near-term demand softness despite 13.2% YoY headline growth.

Snapshot