4 models fit Grand Canyon Education Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
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Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionGrand Canyon Education Inc. Common Stock (LOPE)
Fair value (4 models)
$142
ACCE price target
$174
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST; previously $147 since 28 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST.
Price used: $163 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
14.5% above
-12.7% to fair value
ACCE score
66
out of 100
Analysts
100% buy
3 covering
P/E
19.7x
forward 14.4x
1-year return
-26.2%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Grand Canyon Education Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Grand Canyon Education runs Grand Canyon University, a Phoenix-based online and campus provider whose revenue comes largely from its online degree programs and a partnership with a nonprofit that lets it operate under a nonprofit tax structure. The moat is the scale and cost base of its online platform, which turns a 22.0% operating margin and a 53.3% gross margin into a business earning a 31.0% return on equity. Revenue growth of 6.7% is steady rather than explosive, so the case rests on margin durability and capital returns more than on top-line acceleration. The stock trades at 19.4 times trailing earnings but 13.3 times forward, a gap that implies the market expects earnings to rise meaningfully before growth itself shows up. At a $4.2B market cap with no index membership, the name sits outside the flows that tend to re-rate larger caps, which is worth a closer look at the regulatory and partnership risks that drive its valuation discount.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Revenue growth slowing
Revenue grew 6.7% year on year against a 5.6% five-year CAGR, while quarter on quarter revenue fell 14.5%, which may be seasonal but warrants watching.
moderate
Margin score weak
The ACCE margin sub-score is 40 of 100 despite a 22.0% operating margin, suggesting the margin trend, not its level, is what the model is flagging.
moderate
Elevated short interest
Short interest is 9.0% of shares outstanding, a level that can add volatility if the next earnings report disappoints.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 19, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-16 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $239M, and the stock yields 5.7% on that cash flow.
Return on equity of 31.0% and a net margin of 19.6% show the business earns strong profits on what it owns.
The share count fell 4.3% last fiscal year, so each remaining share now owns a bigger slice of the company.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue growth of 6.7% this year sits above the 5.6% five-year average, but a single partner university drives much of the business.
The stock trades 14.5% above the model fair value of $142.16, so the valuation already assumes more than the models support.
The price implies only 2.5% yearly cash flow growth over five years, yet the stock sits above its model fair value.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 4, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where LOPE's valuation models land
Price
$162.83
Model fair value
$142
Model range
$70.14 to $188
Fair value $142
Price $163
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
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