Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
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Valued as an insurer: P/E comparison.
ACCE opinionLincoln National Corporation Common Stock (LNC)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$47.00
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $39.84 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
69
out of 100
Analysts
46% buy
13 covering
P/E
3.4x
forward 5.2x
1-year return
+1.2%
Dividend yield
4.46%
Lincoln National Corporation Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Lincoln National writes life insurance, annuities, and group benefits (dental, disability, and life coverage sold through employers), and its annuity book is the piece most sensitive to interest rates. The stock trades at 3.4 times trailing earnings and 5.2 times forward, with return on equity of 22.6% and revenue up 12.6%, a combination that is unusual for a company of this size and suggests the market is pricing in a meaningful discount for balance sheet or earnings-quality risk. The near-term question is whether the reported earnings turn into durable cash flow, since a 4.6% operating margin leaves little cushion if reserve assumptions or annuity hedging costs move against the company. Its $7.6 billion market cap and absence from major indices mean the name is thinly covered and can move on relatively small flows, which cuts both ways. The score of 70/100 is worth a deeper look mainly to test whether the low multiple reflects a mispricing or a justified view on the liability side of the business.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Negative free cash flow
Free cash flow is -$167M despite a 76.8% earnings jump, so reported profit is not converting to cash. Debt/Equity of 0.59 leaves less room to absorb that gap.
moderate
Heavy short interest
Short interest sits at 8.5% of float, a meaningful bearish positioning signal alongside insider sales of $3.61M against $0.01M in buys.
moderate
Weak five-year revenue growth
Five-year revenue CAGR is only 0.7%, so the recent 12.6% year-over-year gain is not yet a established trend.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 13, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-13 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Lincoln National reported a 12.0% earnings beat, with earnings per share of 2.24 against 2.00 expected.
The shares trade at a forward P/E of 4.6x, against a sector median of 11.7x, which leaves a wide valuation gap.
Six of 13 analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, and their mean price target of $48.00 sits 18.5% above the share price.
Why it could disappoint
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was negative at -$167M, and the free cash flow yield is -2.2%.
Revenue grew 0.7% a year on average over five years, far slower than the 12.6% of the latest year.
The diluted share count rose 7.1% in the last fiscal year, diluting existing shareholders' stakes in the company.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 5, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where LNC's valuation models land
Price
$39.84
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $93.91
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Quality
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