4 models fit Lincoln Educational Services Corporation Common Stock and they partly agree: 2 of 4 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionLincoln Educational Services Corporation Common Stock (LINC)
Fair value (4 models)
$10.40
ACCE price target
$23.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 17:05 CEST; previously $10.80 since 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 17:05 CEST.
Price used: $21.68 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
108.4% above
-52.0% to fair value
ACCE score
49
out of 100
Analysts
100% buy
5 covering
P/E
29.7x
forward 20.7x
1-year return
-6.6%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Lincoln Educational Services Corporation Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Lincoln Educational runs post-secondary career schools that train students for hands-on trades such as automotive technology, welding, diesel and HVAC, alongside a smaller nursing and healthcare program set. Its moat is local: campuses with employer relationships and industry-specific equipment are costly to replicate, and the company's 59.8% gross margin shows the teaching model is profitable at the unit level. Revenue growth of 22.4% is the bright spot, though the 2.3% operating margin says most of that top-line expansion is not yet reaching the bottom line, so execution on cost control is the main thing to verify. At 30.4 times trailing earnings and 26.0 times forward, the stock is priced for margin improvement to materialise, with a 11.9% return on equity still modest for the sector. A 51 out of 100 score and no index membership at a 705 million dollar market cap mean the name sits outside the usual screens, which is precisely why it merits a closer look at enrolment trends and margin progression before any decision.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Free cash flow deeply negative
FCF of $-27,443,000 against a $674M market cap is a serious cash drain, even with revenue up 22.4% year on year. Growth is not yet converting to cash.
high
Score down sharply in 90 days
ACCE score fell 15 points, from 66 to 51, over 90 days, with the valuation sub-score at 44 and the momentum sub-score at 32. The deterioration is broad rather than isolated.
moderate
Thin operating margin
Operating margin is only 2.3% and net margin 4.0% despite a 59.8% gross margin, so most of the gross profit is absorbed by operating costs.
moderate
Elevated short interest
Short interest stands at 9.6% of ownership, which signals that some investors are betting on a decline. Insider sales of $0.62M with no insider buys add to the caution.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 22.4% over the past year, well ahead of its 12.1% average annual pace over five years.
Analysts are unanimous, with all 5 rating the stock Buy or Strong Buy, and their mean price target sits well above today's price.
Last quarter's earnings per share beat expectations by 700.0%, coming in at 0.06 against a forecast of -0.01.
Why it could disappoint
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was negative at -$27M, so growth is consuming more cash than the business generates.
The shares trade 108.4% above the model fair value of $10.40, and all 4 valuation models in the consensus sit below the price.
Debt equals 1.02 times equity, and the diluted share count rose 1.2% last year, so both leverage and dilution are working against shareholders.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 9, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where LINC's valuation models land
Price
$21.68
Model fair value
$10.40
Model range
$6.00 to $14.42
Fair value $10.40
Price $21.68
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores