Life Insurance Corporation of India (LICI.NS) fair value
Financial Services · Insurance - Life · NSE · India
₹381.50-1.55%
Market cap ₹2.41TNext earnings 2026-11-05Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Close to our fair value
Price
₹381.50
Model fair valueConfidence: good
₹369
Model range
₹116 to ₹622
Fair value ₹369
Price ₹382
2 models fit Life Insurance Corporation of India and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Bronze47
Valued as an insurer: P/E comparison and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionLife Insurance Corporation of India (LICI.NS)
Fair value (2 models)
₹369
ACCE price target
₹411
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 23 Oct 2026, 10:03 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST.
Rating published on 23 Oct 2026, 10:03 CEST.
Price used: ₹382 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 12:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison and Dividend discount.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
3.5% above
-3.4% to fair value
ACCE score
65
out of 100
P/E
8.0x
forward 6.5x
1-year return
-15.2%
Dividend yield
2.58%
Life Insurance Corporation of India in four questions
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Life Insurance Corporation of India is the state-owned insurer that dominates India's life insurance market, selling traditional endowment and term policies through a large agency force and bancassurance tie-ups. Its structural edge is scale and distribution: few private rivals can match its branch reach or its brand in tier-two and rural India, where insurance penetration is still low. Growth is coming from India's rising savings and protection demand, with revenue up 6.8% and a P/E of 8.2 (forward 6.6) against a market cap of 2.45T INR. The stock trades at a steep discount for a company of this size, but the discount reflects a low-margin business (operating margin 6.4%) and the overhang of government ownership and any future disinvestment. Worth a deeper look if you want to test whether the valuation gap is a mispricing or a fair reflection of governance and margin constraints.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings miss on latest quarter
Q2 2026 EPS came in 41.9% below expectations, even though trailing earnings grew 40.0% year on year. One weak quarter, but a large one.
moderate
Revenue growth slowing
Revenue grew 6.8% year on year, against a 5-year revenue CAGR of 7.2%, so top-line momentum is running slightly below its longer-term pace.
moderate
Thin ownership float
Insiders hold 90.0% of shares and institutions only 5.9%, so the freely traded float is small and price moves can be sharper than the fundamentals alone would suggest.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-22 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
At 8.2 times trailing earnings and 6.6 times forward earnings, the stock is priced well below its typical value for a financial company.
The company carries no debt at all, with a debt to equity ratio of 0.00, giving it a strong balance sheet.
Analysts' mean price target of INR 520.83 sits 34.4% above the current share price, suggesting room for upside.
Why it could disappoint
Earnings missed expectations badly last quarter, with EPS of 10.74 against 18.49 expected, a shortfall of 41.9%.
Net margin of 6.5% leaves thin earnings quality, so small shifts in costs could hit profits hard.
Revenue grew only 6.8% over the latest year, slightly below its 7.2% five-year average pace, so growth is slowing.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where LICI.NS's valuation models land
Price
₹381.50
Model fair value
₹369
Model range
₹116 to ₹622
Fair value ₹369
Price ₹382
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
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