3 models fit Keysight Technologies Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionKeysight Technologies Inc. Common Stock (KEYS)
Fair value (3 models)
$163
ACCE price target
$355
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST; previously $182 since 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $355 since 20 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST.
Price used: $315 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
93.7% above
-48.4% to fair value
ACCE score
67
out of 100
Analysts
83% buy
12 covering
P/E
42.2x
forward 22.4x
1-year return
+86.9%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Keysight Technologies Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Keysight designs and manufactures electronic measurement instruments and software used in semiconductor design, manufacturing, and network testing. The company sells oscilloscopes, spectrum analyzers, and network protocol analyzers alongside software platforms that simulate and validate chip designs before fabrication.
The structural advantage lies in high switching costs: once an engineer standardizes on Keysight's tools within a design flow, replacing them means retraining teams and revalidating entire workflows. This stickiness compounds as customers move up the value chain into software and services, where margins expand and churn declines.
The near-term driver is semiconductor capital intensity. Advanced chip nodes require more complex validation; a 3-nanometer design involves orders of magnitude more test scenarios than a 28-nanometer node. Keysight's software revenue, which carries higher margins and recurring revenue characteristics, grew 36% last year and now represents roughly 40% of total revenue.
The valuation disconnect is worth examining. At a forward PE of 27.5x against 36.5% revenue growth and 25.7% operating margins, the stock prices in deceleration. Yet the company has returned 20.9% ROE while reinvesting heavily in R&D, suggesting the market may be underweighting the durability of its installed base and the margin expansion potential as software penetration deepens.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Valuation disconnect with growth
P/E 51.8 vs forward 27.5 implies sharp earnings deceleration ahead. 5-year revenue CAGR is -0.3% despite recent +36.5% YoY, suggesting cyclical peak or one-time driver.
moderate
Insider selling without buying
Last 10 disclosed transactions: $4.44M in sales, $0 in buys. No offsetting insider conviction signal during a period of elevated valuation multiples.
moderate
ACCE value score collapse
V-score 27/100 is the lowest component.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 16, 2026 · figures from 2026-07-31 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Keysight delivered 36.5% revenue growth with a 19.1% net margin, showing strong execution and pricing power in a cyclical recovery.
The company generated 1.9 billion dollars in free cash flow while reducing share count by 1.1%, returning capital efficiently to shareholders.
Keysight's 20.9% return on equity and 83% analyst buy rating suggest the market sees sustainable competitive advantages and earnings growth ahead.
Why it could disappoint
The stock trades at 51.8x trailing P/E while consensus fair value sits 51.0% lower, implying the market has priced in years of flawless execution.
Five-year revenue growth averaged minus 0.3% annually, so current 36.5% growth likely reflects cyclical semiconductor recovery rather than structural gains.
Free cash flow yield of only 2.9% leaves little margin for error if test equipment capex cycles slow or customer concentration shifts.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 23, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where KEYS's valuation models land
Price
$314.77
Model fair value
$163
Model range
$92.29 to $318
Fair value $163
Price $315
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
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Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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