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IONQ
ACCE-researched

IonQ Inc. Common Stock (IONQ) fair value

Technology · Computer Hardware · NYSE · United States
$31.27+0.35%
Market cap $12.6BNext earnings 2026-11-04Updated Oct 16, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 20% below our fair value
Price
$31.27
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $38.85
Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
Not used by alerts or posts.
Valued as a loss-making company: Sales comps and Analyst consensus.
ACCE opinionIonQ Inc. Common Stock (IONQ)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
$19.00
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $32.00 since 26 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $31.27 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Analyst consensus and Sales comps.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
33
out of 100
Analysts
86% buy
14 covering
P/E
0.0x
forward 0.0x
1-year return
-47.3%
Dividend yield
0.00%

IonQ Inc. Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

IonQ builds trapped-ion quantum computers and sells access to them through cloud platforms and on-premises systems, with its current revenue coming from hardware sales and quantum computing services. The company's case rests on its trapped-ion approach, which it argues offers higher gate fidelity and easier scaling than competing superconducting designs, though that advantage is not yet visible in its financials. Revenue grew 286.8% over the period in the data, but operating margin is -408.2% and ROE is -60.5%, so growth is being bought with heavy losses. At a $14.1B market cap with no P/E because earnings are negative, the valuation depends almost entirely on whether revenue keeps compounding while losses narrow, and the 30.9% gross margin is the first number to watch for evidence of that. The stock scores 40/100 and sits in no index, so this is a speculative early-commercialization name, worth a deeper look only if the team is prepared to underwrite a long timeline on quantum adoption.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 14, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Massive negative free cash flow
    FCF of -$300M against $16.2B market cap signals the company is burning cash at an unsustainable rate despite revenue growth.
  • high
    Operating margin deeply negative
    Operating margin of -408% indicates the company loses $4.08 for every dollar of revenue. Growth is not translating to profitability.
  • high
    Valuation disconnect from fundamentals
    P/S of 65.6x and market cap $16.2B rest on pre-revenue or speculative assumptions. ACCE fair value of $32 sits below current price of $39.89.
  • moderate
    Insider selling without offsetting buying
    Last 10 disclosures show $0.70M in insider sales and zero buys. Lack of insider conviction is a minor negative signal.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Revenue grew 286.8% year over year, demonstrating strong commercial traction in quantum computing.
  • Analyst consensus rates 86% of coverage as Buy or Strong Buy, with a mean target implying 67.0% upside.
  • Balance sheet is fortress-like with debt to equity of just 0.01, enabling long runway to profitability.
Why it could disappoint
  • Diluted share count jumped 31.6% last fiscal year, and negative free cash flow guarantees further dilution ahead.
  • Latest earnings missed expectations by 22.0%, and net margin remains at 0.0% with no clear path to profitability.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Nov 4, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where IONQ's valuation models land
Price
$31.27
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $38.85
Model
Fair value
Upside
Analyst consensus
Sales comps
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish86% buy · 14 covering analysts
● Strong buy 11● Buy 1● Hold 2● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
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Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
-0.0%
1 month
-26.5%
3 months
-4.8%
6 months
-26.8%
YTD
-30.3%
1 year
-47.3%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$19.00$32.00$31.42
26 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$32.00first publication$44.98

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth64Value10Quality39Momentum17Total33
Valuation
Trailing P/E
0.0x
Forward P/E
0.0x
PEG
no data
P/B
5.18x
EV / Revenue
61.5x
Book value/sh
$8.73
Enterprise value
$15.2B
Profitability
ROE
-60.5%
FCF yield
-2.29%
ROIC
-10.9%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.01
Dividend yield
0.00%
Beta
3.36

Price

-48.1% · 1Y

Ask anything about IONQ

Answered from IonQ Inc. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 100% of peers
low 0.0x0.0xhigh 123.3x
ROEbetter than 0% of peers
low -60%-60%high 35%
Div yieldbetter than 33% of peers
low 0.0%0.0%high 3.3%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
IONQ IonQ Inc. Common Stock$31.27----60.5%3933
LOGN.SW Logitech InternationalCHF 90.06CHF 7126% above21.2x35.3%8974
LOGI Logitech International S.A. Ordinary Shares$112.52$8730% above20.2x35.3%8974
SMCI Super Micro Computer Inc. Common Stock$33.72$4525% below10.1x21.5%5873
P Everpure Inc. Class A common stock$121.20--123.3x13.7%6467
6724.T Seiko Epson Corporation¥3323.00--58.5x3.0%4368
7751.T Canon¥4898.00¥853743% below12.4x10.4%6369

Sector report card

Where IONQ ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • Business Wire•Oct 14, 2026
    IonQ Announces Pricing of $2.0 Billion Equity Offering
  • Business Wire•Oct 9, 2026
    IonQ Demonstrates World-First Quantum Memory-Enhanced Interconnect for Distributed Quantum Applications
  • Business Wire•Oct 7, 2026
    IonQ Advances to Final Stage of DARPA’s Quantum Benchmarking Initiative
9 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
30 filings
May 2026
May 8
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-05-06
View on SEC →
May 7
10-QQuarterly reportPeriod 2026-03-31
View on SEC →
May 6
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-05-06
View on SEC →
27 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR