ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST.
Price used: ₹870 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 12:00 CEST.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
73
out of 100
P/E
11.8x
forward 7.8x
1-year return
+9.8%
Dividend yield
0.56%
Hindalco Industries Limited in four questions
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Hindalco makes primary aluminium and copper, and through Novelis it is also the largest producer of rolled aluminium products for beverage cans and automotive body sheet, with Novelis running recycling and rolling plants across North America, Europe and Asia. Its edge is integration: captive alumina and power sit behind the smelters, so it earns a cost position that pure-play rollers and smaller smelters cannot match, and Novelis gives it a downstream book with long-term customer contracts. Revenue grew 32.1% over the latest period, and with a 31.3% gross margin and a 13.7% operating margin, the business is converting that growth into profit at a reasonable rate. The stock trades at 12.0x trailing and 8.0x forward earnings, a sizeable discount that implies the market expects earnings to fall or to be cyclically peaked, which is the question to test before any deeper work: whether aluminium prices and the Novelis margin cycle can hold up. A look at the forward estimates and the metal price curve would settle that.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Insider selling not visible
Insiders hold 37.6% but the last 10 disclosed trades show $0.00M of buys and $0.00M of sales, so there is no insider signal in either direction to weigh.
moderate
Leverage and thin margins
Debt/Equity of 0.73 and a net margin of 5.5% leave little cushion if aluminium prices fall or input costs rise after a 75.1% earnings jump.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-22 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 32.1% year over year in the latest filings, a pace that suggests the business is expanding quickly.
Analysts' mean price target sits at INR 1153.70, which implies roughly 30.3% upside from the current share price.
Earnings per share beat expectations by 39.9%, coming in at 39.22 against 28.03 expected.
Why it could disappoint
The company keeps only 5.5% of each rupee of revenue as profit, leaving little cushion if aluminium or copper prices fall.
Debt equals 0.73 times shareholders' equity, a meaningful borrowing load for a cyclical metals producer.
The share price of ₹869.85 sits 12.7% below the ACCE price target of ₹996.00, so the stock is not cheap on our own numbers.
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