3 models fit Warrior Met Coal Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Bronze52
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionWarrior Met Coal Inc. Common Stock (HCC)
Fair value (3 models)
$59.46
ACCE price target
$88.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $61.01 since 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST.
Price used: $85.80 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
44.3% above
-30.7% to fair value
ACCE score
72
out of 100
Analysts
57% buy
7 covering
P/E
20.9x
forward 12.2x
1-year return
+36.8%
Dividend yield
0.39%
Warrior Met Coal Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Warrior Met Coal mines and sells premium hard coking coal from its Blue Creek and Blue Creek-adjacent operations in Alabama, selling mainly to steelmakers who need metallurgical coal as a reductant in blast furnaces. The advantage is the grade and the asset base: a single-region, high-volatile A product with low sulfur and phosphorus, which steel customers pay up for and which few new supply sources can match quickly given permitting and development timelines. The 71.3% revenue growth is the number to interrogate, since it reflects a pricing and volume rebound off a weak prior period and will not persist at that rate, so the question is what normalized earnings look like at mid-cycle coking coal prices. At a trailing P/E of 22.6 against a forward P/E of 16.2, the market is already pricing in earnings growth, and the 18.6% operating margin and 30.6% gross margin show the cash generation is real when prices hold. The stock is worth a deeper look mainly to pressure-test the cycle: how much of the current margin depends on spot coking coal prices versus contracted volumes, and how the balance sheet and capital returns hold if steel demand softens.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Free cash flow negative
Free cash flow is -$91.0M despite a 71.3% revenue jump and 18.6% operating margin. Earnings growth of 1447.8% is not turning into cash, so the earnings base needs scrutiny.
moderate
Elevated short interest
Short interest sits at 10.6% of shares, a meaningful bet against the stock. Combined with negative free cash flow, it signals some skepticism about durability.
moderate
Price near ACCE target
The stock trades 2.5% below the ACCE price target of $88.00, leaving limited upside to that level. It also sits 44.3% above the model fair value of $59.46.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 20, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 71.3% over the past year, far faster than its 10.8% average annual pace across five years.
Last quarter's earnings per share beat expectations, coming in at 1.65 against 1.54 expected, a 7.1% surprise.
Why it could disappoint
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was negative at -$91M, so the business consumed cash despite strong revenue growth.
The stock trades 44.3% above the model fair value of $59.46, and the price implies cash flow growth of 5.9% a year forever.
Return on invested capital is only 1.9%, well below the 5.2% risk-free rate used in the valuation, so capital earns little.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 4, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where HCC's valuation models land
Price
$85.80
Model fair value
$59.46
Model range
$31.29 to $74.65
Fair value $59.46
Price $85.80
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
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