Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
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Valued as a loss-making company: Analyst consensus.
ACCE opinionAlpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. Common Stock (AMR)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$175
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $164 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Analyst consensus.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
31
out of 100
Analysts
0% buy
4 covering
P/E
0.0x
forward 2.7x
1-year return
+4.8%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Alpha Metallurgical Resources mines and sells metallurgical (coking) coal, the carbon input used to make steel in blast furnaces, from operations in Central Appalachia and the Southern Appalachian region. The structural case rests on that product: met coal has few substitutes in conventional steelmaking, so supply is concentrated among a small set of producers, and the business can reprice quickly when seaborne prices move. Revenue fell 10.4% year over year, with gross margin at 10.0% and operating margin at -2.9%, so the current cash generation is thin and the operating leverage is working against shareholders on the way down. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 2.7 against a trailing P/E of zero because earnings are negative, which means the market is pricing a sharp normalization in steel-coal spreads rather than the present income statement. ROE of -3.0% and a $2.2B market cap leave little room for error, so the first question for the desk is whether the next two quarters of realized pricing and cost per ton support the forward multiple or whether it is an artifact of consensus estimates. Score of 33/100 and no index membership reflect that weak fundamental profile, and this name merits a deeper look only if the team has a differentiated view on met coal pricing.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapse and shrinking revenue
Earnings are down 95.6% year on year and revenue is down 10.4%, while operating margin sits at -2.9% and net margin at -2.2%. The business is losing money on its current run rate.
moderate
Heavy short interest
Short interest stands at 16.0% of shares, a large bet against the stock given the falling revenue and negative operating margin.
moderate
Weak return on equity and cash flow
ROE is -3.0% and free cash flow is only $18M against a $2.0B market cap, a thin cash cushion if coking coal prices stay soft.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 21, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Analysts' mean price target is $178.33, which sits 12.3% above the current share price.
The company generated $18M of free cash flow over the last twelve months and carries almost no debt, with debt to equity at 0.02.
Earnings per share came in slightly better than expected, at -0.96 against -0.97 forecast, and the share count shrank 0.5% last year.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 10.4% year over year, and the company still lost money with a net margin of -2.2%.
Return on equity of -3.0% and return on invested capital of -3.2% show the business is currently destroying value for shareholders.
None of the four analysts covering the stock rates it Buy or Strong Buy, and the free cash flow yield is only 0.9%.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 5, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where AMR's valuation models land
Price
$163.60
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $178
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Analyst consensus
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