Market cap €132MNext earnings 2025-08-07Updated Oct 22, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 47% below our fair value
Price
€14.65
Model fair valueConfidence: good
€27.53
Model range
€9.25 to €41.58
Fair value €27.53
Price €14.65
5 models fit Hawesko Holding SE and they disagree: 1 of 5 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionHawesko Holding SE (HAW.DE)
Fair value (5 models)
€27.53
ACCE price target
€16.50
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 22 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 23 Oct 2026, 01:53 CEST.
Rating published on 22 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
Price used: €14.65 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
46.8% below
+87.9% to fair value
ACCE score
38
out of 100
P/E
12.7x
forward 8.4x
1-year return
-31.2%
Dividend yield
6.83%
Hawesko Holding SE in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Hawesko Holding sells wine and sparkling wine through its mail-order and online retail brands (including Jacques' Wein-Depot in Germany) and runs a wholesale and import business, which gives it a direct-to-consumer franchise in a fragmented German market. Its structural edge is the scale of its customer database and the gross margin of 44.4%, which is high for the sector and suggests pricing power in its own-label and premium lines. The near-term question is whether the top line stabilises: revenue is shrinking 5.3% a year and the 2.4% operating margin leaves little room for error, so any return to growth or cost discipline would move earnings sharply. At a trailing P/E of 12.7 and a forward P/E of 8.4, the market is pricing in a decline in profit, which makes the name worth a closer look if you believe the consumer wine channel is bottoming. Its ROE of 9.2% and absence from any index also mean liquidity and coverage are thin, so sizing and the depth of the balance-sheet review should be settled before anything else.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapsing year on year
Earnings fell 42.2% YoY while revenue dropped 5.3%, so the earnings decline is outpacing sales. Net margin of 1.7% and operating margin of 2.4% leave little cushion.
moderate
Leveraged balance sheet
Debt/Equity of 1.34 means debt exceeds equity by a wide margin. Falling earnings make that leverage harder to carry.
moderate
Flat five-year revenue
The five-year revenue CAGR is 0.0%, so the business has not grown its top line over the period. Current revenue is also falling at 5.3%.
moderate
Heavy insider ownership, thin float
Insiders hold 78.4% of shares while institutions hold 1.4%, leaving a small free float that can make the stock move sharply on modest trading.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 23, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-22 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow of EUR 40M over the last twelve months gives the company real cash to fund its dividend and debt.
The share price of €14.65 sits well below the consensus model fair value, and the five valuation models all point the same way.
A trailing P/E of 12.7x is cheaper than the sector median forward P/E of 18.1x, even before weighing the earnings slump.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 5.3% year over year, and the five-year average growth rate is flat at 0.0% per year.
A latest earnings per share miss of 52.0% shows profits are weakening faster than the business is shrinking.
A 1.34 debt to equity ratio leaves little room to absorb further sales declines or a dividend pressure.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where HAW.DE's valuation models land
Price
€14.65
Model fair value
€27.53
Model range
€9.25 to €41.58
Fair value €27.53
Price €14.65
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
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Analysts
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