Market cap MXN 82.4BNext earnings 2026-10-21Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 39% below our fair value
Price
MXN 250.88
Model fair valueConfidence: good
MXN 410
Model range
MXN 222 to MXN 532
Fair value MXN 410
Price MXN 251
5 models fit Gruma and they disagree: 0 of 5 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)Bronze55
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionGruma (GRUMAB.MX)
Fair value (5 models)
MXN 410
ACCE price target
MXN 259
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 23 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST; previously MXN 441 since 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST.
Price used: MXN 251 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 23:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
38.8% below
+63.4% to fair value
ACCE score
54
out of 100
P/E
9.8x
forward 9.5x
1-year return
-21.7%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Gruma in four questions
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Gruma (GRUMAB.MX) is the Mexican maker of Maseca corn flour, the masa base behind most tortillas sold in Mexico and a growing share of those sold in the United States, and it also runs tortilla, wrap and snack operations abroad. The moat is scale in nixtamalized corn flour, a process that is hard to replicate and carries brand recognition across Mexican and Hispanic consumer channels. The near-term question is whether the Mexican and U.S. tortilla franchises keep converting input cost relief into margin, since the data we have does not yet show margin or growth trends to confirm it. What makes the name worth a look is valuation: at 9.7x trailing and 9.8x forward earnings, with an 81.2B MXN market cap, the stock is priced far below what a consumer staples franchise of this type usually commands. The gap between that multiple and the business's market position is the reason to pull the segment margins and corn cost pass-through data before going further.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Earnings declining despite revenue growth
Revenue grew 3.1% year on year but earnings fell 7.9%, so margins are being squeezed. Net margin of 7.4% and operating margin of 13.0% leave little room for further pressure.
moderate
Heavy insider ownership limits float
Insiders hold 57.4% of shares, so a large part of the register is unlikely to trade freely. Thin free float can amplify price moves in either direction.
moderate
Low ACCE score despite valuation
The ACCE score of 54/100 is driven by a weak growth component (28) and momentum (17), even though the value component scores 100. The stock is cheap on paper but the trend signals are poor.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 24, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last 12 months reached $562M, a sizeable cash engine for a company priced at a modest multiple.
Return on equity of 22.1% shows the business earns strong returns on the shareholder capital it uses.
The share count fell 4.4% in the last fiscal year, so each remaining share now carries a larger slice of earnings.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue grew only 3.1% year over year, well below the 6.8% annual average of the past five years.
Net margin of 7.4% is thin, leaving little room to absorb swings in corn and energy costs.
The share price of MXN 250.88 sits 3.1% below the ACCE price target of MXN 259.00, so much of the upside to that target has already been priced in.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where GRUMAB.MX's valuation models land
Price
MXN 250.88
Model fair value
MXN 410
Model range
MXN 222 to MXN 532
Fair value MXN 410
Price MXN 251
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
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Analysts
Wall Street consensus
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Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE
The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.
+Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
+Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
+ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street
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