Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods · Nasdaq Stockholm · Sweden
kr 182.60-4.25%
Market cap kr 49.5BNext earnings 2026-10-23Updated Oct 22, 2026
Our verdict
Close to our fair value
Price
kr 182.60
Model fair valueConfidence: good
kr 192
Model range
kr 122 to kr 257
Fair value kr 192
Price kr 183
5 models fit AAK AB (publ.) and they disagree: 1 of 5 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionAAK AB (publ.) (AAK.ST)
Fair value (5 models)
kr 192
ACCE price target
kr 186
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 22 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST.
Rating published on 22 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
Price used: kr 183 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
4.9% below
+5.2% to fair value
ACCE score
47
out of 100
P/E
13.7x
forward 21.5x
1-year return
-32.8%
Dividend yield
2.91%
AAK AB (publ.) in four questions
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Overview
ACCE thesis
AAK makes plant-based and specialty vegetable oils, including the hard-stock and structuring fats that go into chocolate, bakery and confectionery, plus the speciality fats used in infant nutrition, which gives it a sticky, formulation-driven customer base rather than a commodity one. Its edge is that customers build recipes around its fats, so switching costs are real and margins hold up better than the raw oil market would suggest; the reported gross margin is 26.2% and ROE is 18.7%. Revenue fell 0.9% on the latest figures, so the near-term case rests on volume and mix recovery in the confectionery and bakery end markets rather than on top-line momentum. At 13.7 times trailing earnings and 13.4 times forward earnings, the stock is priced for a modest earnings recovery rather than a growth story, and the operating margin of 9.8% leaves room to test whether that recovery shows up in the numbers. Worth a deeper look on whether the company can turn flat sales into margin expansion; the case weakens if revenue keeps shrinking.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Free cash flow negative
Free cash flow is $-441,000,000, so reported earnings growth is not yet converting into cash. Forward P/E of 21.5 sits well above trailing P/E of 13.6, implying lower expected earnings ahead.
moderate
Revenue shrinking year on year
Revenue fell 0.9% year on year, against a 5-year revenue CAGR of +10.5%, so top-line growth has stalled while earnings rose 24.4%.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Analysts' mean price target of SEK 240.50 sits 26.6% above the current share price, implying meaningful upside to their view.
Return on equity of 18.7% and return on invested capital of 11.3% show the business earns solid returns on the money put into it.
Debt to equity of 0.25 means the balance sheet carries little borrowing relative to shareholders' equity.
Why it could disappoint
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was negative at -SEK 441M, so the business has not been generating cash after investment.
Revenue fell 0.9% year over year, a sharp slowdown from its 10.5% average annual growth over the past five years.
Earnings per share missed expectations by 11.8%, with 3.06 reported against 3.47 expected in the latest quarter.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where AAK.ST's valuation models land
Price
kr 182.60
Model fair value
kr 192
Model range
kr 122 to kr 257
Fair value kr 192
Price kr 183
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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