4 models fit Canada Goose Holdings Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares and they partly agree: 2 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Bronze47
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionCanada Goose Holdings Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares (GOOS)
Fair value (4 models)
$8.98
ACCE price target
$9.00
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST; previously $8.80 since 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 13 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST.
Price used: $8.06 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
10.2% below
+11.4% to fair value
ACCE score
53
out of 100
Analysts
25% buy
12 covering
P/E
20.3x
forward 14.5x
1-year return
-40.0%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Canada Goose Holdings Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Canada Goose designs and sells premium insulated outerwear, anchored by its parkas and down jackets, sold through its own stores, e-commerce and wholesale partners, with Arctic-grade cold-weather performance as the core brand claim. The gross margin of 69.7% is the clearest evidence of pricing power in the name, and it is the figure to test before anything else. Revenue growth of 10.3% is respectable for a brand at this scale, but the -87.3% operating margin says the cost base is far heavier than the revenue line suggests, so the question is whether that is a temporary charge or structural. At a forward P/E of 14.5 against a trailing 20.2, the market is pricing in an earnings recovery that the current income statement does not yet show. The score of 53/100 and absence from any major index mean this is a stock the screen finds mixed, so a deeper look should focus on the path from gross margin to operating margin.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Operating margin deeply negative
Operating margin is -87.3% against a net margin of +3.7%, so the reported profit depends on items well outside core operations. The gap needs explaining before sizing any position.
moderate
Leverage and short interest elevated
Debt/Equity is 1.29 and short interest is 13.4% of float. Growth in revenue (+10.3%) is not matched by earnings (+3.0%), which leaves little cushion if sentiment turns.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 19, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 10.3% year over year, close to the 11.1% average annual growth of the past five years.
At $8.06 the stock trades at 9.9 times forward earnings, against a sector median of 17.8 times.
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached CAD 142M, a 12.7% yield at the current price.
Why it could disappoint
Return on invested capital is only 1.3%, and net margin of 3.7% leaves little room for error.
Debt is 1.29 times equity, which leaves the balance sheet thin for a company this size.
The latest quarter's earnings per share missed expectations by 1.6%, with EPS of -0.64 against -0.63 expected.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 5, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where GOOS's valuation models land
Price
$8.06
Model fair value
$8.98
Model range
$4.05 to $13.30
Fair value $8.98
Price $8.06
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
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Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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