3 models fit GFL Environmental Inc. Subordinate voting shares no par value and they disagree: 0 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Bronze50
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionGFL Environmental Inc. Subordinate voting shares no par value (GFL)
Fair value (3 models)
$25.46
ACCE price target
$47.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST; previously $24.49 since 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 26 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST.
Price used: $45.56 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
79.0% above
-44.1% to fair value
ACCE score
49
out of 100
Analysts
76% buy
21 covering
P/E
0.0x
forward 37.5x
1-year return
-1.1%
Dividend yield
0.19%
GFL Environmental Inc. Subordinate voting shares no par value in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
GFL Environmental runs solid waste collection, landfills, transfer stations and recycling across North America, with a growing environmental services arm that handles soil remediation and liquids processing. Its moat is physical: permitted landfill airspace and dense local collection routes are slow and expensive to replicate, which gives pricing power that is hard to see in a headline growth number. The near-term driver is acquisitions and the pricing and volume gains that come with them, with reported revenue growth of 16.3% running ahead of what the balance sheet currently earns. The reason to look now is the gap between a 6.9% operating margin and a 20.2% gross margin, which shows how much of the business is absorbed by costs below the gross line, and a forward P/E of 47.8 that prices in a lot of margin expansion. ROE of -2.3% means the equity is not yet earning its keep, so the question for a deeper look is whether operating leverage on the acquired asset base closes that gap before the multiple has to compress.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Negative net margin and ROE
Net margin -2.9% and ROE -2.3% despite 16.3% revenue growth signals profitability headwinds. Company is not converting top-line growth to bottom-line earnings.
high
Elevated leverage with negative earnings
Debt/Equity 1.34 combined with negative ROE and net margin creates refinancing risk if growth or margins deteriorate further.
moderate
Forward P/E valuation disconnect
Forward P/E 47.8 is steep relative to current profitability and 5-year revenue CAGR of -0.7%, suggesting market is pricing in significant margin recovery.
moderate
ACCE Quality score weakness
Quality score 31/100 is the lowest component of ACCE model. Recent +8 point score improvement may not reflect underlying operational durability.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 16.3% year over year, demonstrating strong operational momentum in waste and environmental services.
Return on invested capital of 21.3% shows the business deploys capital efficiently despite negative accounting earnings.
Analyst consensus rates 76% of coverage as Buy or Strong Buy, with mean price target 18.2% above current price.
Why it could disappoint
Forward P/E of 47.8x is expensive relative to the business generating negative net margins of -2.9%.
Five-year average revenue growth of -0.7% per year suggests recent acceleration may not be sustainable.
Free cash flow yield of only 1.5% combined with debt-to-equity of 1.34 leaves limited margin for error.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 28, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where GFL's valuation models land
Price
$45.56
Model fair value
$25.46
Model range
$14.18 to $47.95
Fair value $25.46
Price $45.56
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores