Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
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Valued as a loss-making company: Sales comps and Analyst consensus.
ACCE opinionForward Air Corporation Common Stock (FWRD)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
$14.00
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $15.30 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Analyst consensus and Sales comps.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
42
out of 100
Analysts
40% buy
5 covering
P/E
0.0x
forward 19.9x
1-year return
-19.3%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Forward Air Corporation Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Forward Air runs an asset-light network of less-than-truckload freight, expedited ground and final-mile delivery, plus a healthcare-focused logistics arm, serving industrial and retail shippers across the US. The thesis rests on the idea that its terminal and linehaul network is hard to replicate, so a sales recovery in LTL should flow through faster than it would for a pure-play carrier. Revenue grew 8.8% and the business is guiding to margin repair from a depressed base, with a 6.3% operating margin and a 19.9x forward P/E on a company valued at roughly $535M. The reasons to look deeper are the margin inflection and the balance sheet, though ROE of -735.7% reflects a very thin equity base that needs checking before anything else. Score of 42/100 says the screen sees more risk than reward today, so this needs a proper work-up of the debt and the restructuring history before it earns a place on the list.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Heavy leverage on thin equity
Debt/Equity of 19.05 and ROE of -735.7% point to a very small equity base carrying large debt. Net margin is -11.4%, so the balance sheet has little room for another bad year.
moderate
Weak quality and momentum scores
ACCE Quality scores 22/100 and Momentum 17/100, while the overall score sits at 42/100. Earnings growth of +145.0% is not yet matched by profitability, with operating margin at only +6.3%.
moderate
Elevated short interest
Short interest stands at 9.4% of float. That is meaningful for a $526M company and can amplify price swings in either direction.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 14, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 8.8% over the past year, and the company has averaged 14.5% annual growth over five years.
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was $15M, and analysts' mean price target of $26.00 sits well above the $15.58 share price.
The latest quarterly earnings beat expectations by 847.1%, with earnings per share of 1.27 against a forecast of -0.17.
Why it could disappoint
The company is still losing money, with a net margin of -11.4% and a return on invested capital of -3.9%.
Debt is high at 19.05 times equity, and return on equity is -735.7%, which leaves little cushion if business weakens.
The share count grew 12.5% last year, diluting existing holders, and only 40% of analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 9, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where FWRD's valuation models land
Price
$15.30
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $57.24
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Fair value
Upside
Analyst consensus
Sales comps
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores