Market cap €990MNext earnings 2025-07-24Updated Oct 22, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 11% below our fair value
Price
€0.68
Model fair valueConfidence: good
€0.77
Model range
€0.41 to €1.31
Fair value €0.77
Price €0.68
3 models fit Prosegur Cash, S.A. and they disagree: 0 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Silver64
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionProsegur Cash, S.A. (CASH.MC)
Fair value (3 models)
€0.77
ACCE price target
€0.75
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 22 Oct 2026, 14:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 23 Oct 2026, 01:53 CEST.
Rating published on 22 Oct 2026, 14:04 CEST.
Price used: €0.68 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
11.5% below
+13.0% to fair value
ACCE score
52
out of 100
P/E
8.5x
forward 8.6x
1-year return
-10.5%
Dividend yield
6.28%
Prosegur Cash, S.A. in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Prosegur Cash runs cash-in-transit, ATM replenishment and cash-management services for banks and retailers, with a large footprint in Spain, Portugal, Latin America and parts of Asia. The moat is mostly operational: armored fleets, vault networks and licensing are slow and costly to replicate, and contracts with banks tend to be sticky. Revenue growth is only 3.0%, so the case rests on margin and capital efficiency, not top-line acceleration. At 8.4x trailing earnings, a 43.9% ROE and an 8.9% operating margin, the stock trades at a multiple that suggests the market is pricing in cash-usage decline more than the reported numbers do. A PM should look closer at the cash-volume trends in its core European and Latin American markets and whether the 8.9% operating margin can hold as labor costs rise.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapsing
Earnings are down 64.5% year on year, and the latest quarter missed EPS estimates by 50.0%. Revenue grew only 3.0%, so the profit decline is not a sales story.
moderate
Leverage is heavy
Debt to equity sits at 9.23. Free cash flow of $116M is solid, but the balance sheet leaves little room if earnings keep falling.
moderate
Thin float, concentrated ownership
Insiders hold 85.4% of the shares and institutions just 8.4%. Trading liquidity in the free float is likely limited, which can widen price moves.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached EUR 116M, a sizeable cash return on the business.
At a free cash flow yield of 11.8%, the shares look cheap against the cash the business produces.
Analysts' mean price target of EUR 0.78 sits 15.7% above the current share price.
Why it could disappoint
Return on invested capital of 4.1% is thin, suggesting the business earns little on the capital it deploys.
Debt to equity of 9.23 means the balance sheet carries heavy borrowing relative to shareholder equity.
Earnings per share came in at 0.01 against 0.02 expected, a 50.0% miss that undercuts the profit story.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where CASH.MC's valuation models land
Price
€0.68
Model fair value
€0.77
Model range
€0.41 to €1.31
Fair value €0.77
Price €0.68
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
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Analysts
Wall Street consensus
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Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
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