Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
36.2% above
-26.6% to fair value
ACCE score
51
out of 100
Analysts
24% buy
21 covering
P/E
16.5x
forward 13.7x
1-year return
-6.7%
Dividend yield
3.81%
Exelon Corporation Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Exelon is a regulated utility holding company whose six operating subsidiaries, including ComEd in Chicago and PECO in Philadelphia, deliver electricity and natural gas to roughly 10 million customers across the mid-Atlantic and Midwest. Its moat is the rate base: returns are set by state commissions on invested capital in transmission, distribution and grid hardening, so earnings growth follows capital spending that regulators have already approved. With a 15.5x trailing P/E against a 13.9x forward multiple and 9.9% revenue growth, the market is pricing in a steady earnings lift, but the 9.7% ROE sits at the low end of what regulated peers typically earn, which limits the case for a re-rating. The score of 49/100 and absence from major indices reflect that the stock screens as a defensive, modest-return holding rather than a compounding story. It merits a deeper look mainly if the forward earnings path and rate case outcomes in Illinois and Pennsylvania can be verified as lifting ROE above the current level.