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Valued as a REIT (property company): Price to FFO and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionEmpire State Realty Trust Inc. Class A Common Stock (ESRT)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$4.90
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $5.01 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: EV/EBITDA comparison and Price to FFO.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
35
out of 100
Analysts
33% buy
6 covering
P/E
246.5x
forward 129.9x
1-year return
-35.9%
Dividend yield
3.00%
Empire State Realty Trust Inc. Class A Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Empire State Realty Trust owns and operates office buildings in Manhattan, anchored by the Empire State Building and a portfolio of mid-town and lower-Manhattan towers, plus a smaller set of retail and observatory income streams. The structural argument is scarcity: prime Manhattan office space is hard to replicate, and the company's mix of long-term leases and observatory revenue gives it some insulation from the broader office downturn that has hit peers. Revenue growth of 3.2% is modest, and a 0.5% ROE and a 236.5x trailing P/E reflect depressed earnings from high depreciation and interest costs rather than a business that is compounding value. Against a 33/100 score and no index membership, the case for a deeper look rests on whether Manhattan office occupancy and rent recovery can lift the earnings base enough to bring the forward P/E of 129.9 down meaningfully, which is the first thing to verify.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapse
Earnings are down 86.8% year on year, with a net margin of just 0.9% and a P/E of 236.5. Revenue grew only 3.2%, so the profit drop is not a sales problem.
moderate
Leverage elevated
Debt-to-equity sits at 2.30 against FCF of $51M. Interest costs could squeeze cash flow if earnings stay weak.
moderate
Insider selling without buying
Insiders disclosed $0.86M in sales across the last 10 filings and no purchases. Short interest is 7.8% of float.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 14, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue has grown 4.7% per year on average over five years, and grew 3.2% in the latest year.
Free cash flow over the last twelve months came to $51M, and the stock offers a free cash flow yield of 3.6%.
Analysts' mean price target of $5.40 sits 11.1% above the share price, and the dividend yield is 3.0%.
Why it could disappoint
Net margin is only 0.9%, so very little of each dollar of revenue reaches shareholders as profit.
Return on equity of 0.5% and return on invested capital of 1.1% show weak returns on the money the business uses.
Debt to equity of 2.30 is high, and the trailing P/E of 236.5x leaves little room for earnings to disappoint.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 2, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where ESRT's valuation models land
Price
$5.01
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
$10.47
Model
Fair value
Upside
EV/EBITDA comparison
Price to FFO
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Quality
INVESTOR
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