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ENPH
ACCE-researched

Enphase Energy Inc. Common Stock (ENPH) fair value

Technology · Solar · NASDAQ · United States
$31.60+0.80%
Market cap $4.1BNext earnings 2026-10-27Updated Oct 21, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Close to our fair value
Price
$31.60
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$31.11
Model range
$15.76 to $50.75
Fair value $31.11
Price $31.60
4 models fit Enphase Energy Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Bronze45
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionEnphase Energy Inc. Common Stock (ENPH)
Fair value (4 models)
$31.11
ACCE price target
$33.60
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST; previously $41.04 since 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $45.00 since 18 Apr 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST.
Price used: $31.60 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
1.6% above
-1.5% to fair value
ACCE score
38
out of 100
Analysts
45% buy
29 covering
P/E
32.0x
forward 14.3x
1-year return
-11.3%
Dividend yield
0.00%

Enphase Energy Inc. Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Enphase Energy designs and sells residential solar microinverters, the per-panel power converters sold alongside its IQ Battery storage systems and its cloud-based energy management software. Its moat rests on that software and installer network rather than on hardware alone, which has kept gross margin at 30.0% even as revenue contracted. The thesis is a cyclical reset: revenue fell 19.6% and the forward P/E of 14.3 sits far below the trailing 30.8, so the market is pricing a recovery in residential solar demand that has not yet shown up in reported results. Those figures make it a candidate for a deeper look at whether the operating margin of 18.0% holds through the trough, not a conclusion that the trough is over. Its composite score of 42 out of 100 and absence from any index membership mean the screen does not yet support it, so the question for the team is what an 18% operating margin on a shrinking top line is worth.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Revenue collapse and deceleration
    YoY revenue down 19.6% with 5-year CAGR of -14.2%. Recent QoQ +3.2% suggests stabilization but does not offset structural decline.
  • high
    Elevated short interest
    21.7% short interest is material. Combined with revenue headwinds and score deterioration, suggests sustained skepticism from informed traders.
  • moderate
    ACCE score deterioration
    Score fell 5 points to 41/100 over 90 days. Valuation (V:47) and Momentum (M:41) are weak; Quality (Q:68) remains solid but insufficient to offset.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-10 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Analyst consensus values the stock 25.1% above current price, with 45% of analysts rating it Buy or Strong Buy.
  • Forward P/E of 15.0x sits well below the 29.3x sector median, suggesting meaningful valuation discount.
  • Management repurchased 3.7% of shares last year while maintaining a conservative 0.52 debt-to-equity ratio.
Why it could disappoint
  • Revenue fell 19.6% year over year and has declined 14.2% annually over five years, signaling structural headwinds.
  • Free cash flow yield of 1.8% is meager, and the stock trades at 32.8x trailing earnings despite revenue collapse.
  • Latest earnings missed expectations by 12.5%, and the implied 5-year cash growth rate of 3.2% barely exceeds the risk-free rate.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Oct 27, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where ENPH's valuation models land
Price
$31.60
Model fair value
$31.11
Model range
$15.76 to $50.75
Fair value $31.11
Price $31.60
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.

Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Mixed45% buy · 29 covering analysts
● Strong buy 10● Buy 3● Hold 14● Sell 1● Strong sell 1
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
Do politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+3.2%
1 month
-4.4%
3 months
-13.9%
6 months
-11.7%
YTD
-1.4%
1 year
-11.3%

SEC filings

Recent ACCE blog coverage

  • $ENPH Removed from Index as Score Hits 41, Shares Down 37% in a Month
    Enphase Energy is cut from the ACCE index after its score dropped to 41 with a -37.2% one-month return and deteriorating residential inverter demand.
    2026-07-06
  • Solar Stocks 2026: ENPH, SEDG, FSLR and NEE Compared
    SEDG revenue fell 64% and ENPH sits 31% below its peak, while NEE and FSLR kept growing. How the major solar and clean-energy stocks compare on fundamentals in 2026.
    2026-05-04

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CESTFair value$31.11$41.04$32.23
21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CESTRatingFairly valuedfirst publication$32.23
15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$33.60$45.00$32.03
11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$41.04$29.97$32.81
7 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$29.97$30.41$33.45
4 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$30.41$29.33$33.47
30 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$29.33$30.24$30.91
26 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$30.24$26.04$32.82
21 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$26.04$26.46$34.64
19 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$26.46$30.24$36.02

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth7Value56Quality63Momentum25Total38
Valuation
Trailing P/E
32.0x
Forward P/E
14.3x
PEG
0.75
P/B
3.70x
EV / Revenue
3.0x
Book value/sh
$8.94
Enterprise value
$4.0B
Profitability
ROE
13.0%
FCF yield
2.32%
ROIC
6.1%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
1.14
Dividend yield
0.00%
Beta
1.63

Price

-12.8% · 1Y

Ask anything about ENPH

Answered from Enphase Energy Inc. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 40% of peers
low 0.0x32.0xhigh 90.8x
ROEbetter than 83% of peers
low -58%13%high 27%
Div yieldbetter than 83% of peers
low 0.0%0.0%high 0.6%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
ENPH Enphase Energy Inc. Common Stock$31.60$312% above32.0x13.0%6338
0968.HK Xinyi Solar Holdings LimitedHK$1.82--90.8x-0.3%3630
SEDG SolarEdge Technologies Inc. Common Stock$32.94----58.4%2642
S92.DE SMA Solar Technology AG€50.10----13.9%3640
RUN Sunrun Inc. Common Stock$7.70--5.2x-19.9%3447
NXT Nextpower Inc. Class A Common Stock$77.63$9619% below20.4x27.2%8154
SHLS Shoals Technologies Group Inc. Class A Common Stock$7.73$79% above40.7x5.3%6050

Sector report card

Where ENPH ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • GlobeNewswire•Oct 14, 2026
    Enphase Energy Highlights Projects Bringing New Life to Aging Commercial Solar Systems in the United States
  • GlobeNewswire•Oct 8, 2026
    Enphase Energy Begins Shipments of IQ Gateway Fusion in India, Powering Homes with Solar Even During Power Cuts
  • GlobeNewswire•Oct 6, 2026
    Enphase Energy Announces Conference Call to Review Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results
10 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
August 2026
Aug 14
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-08-14
View on SEC →
Aug 10
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-08-10
View on SEC →
July 2026
Jul 31
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-07-30
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR