2 models fit Ellington Financial Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Premium(i)
Valued as a REIT (property company): Price to FFO and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionEllington Financial Inc. Common Stock (EFC)
Fair value (2 models)
$9.80
ACCE price target
$12.20
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST; previously $9.95 since 14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST.
Price used: $11.73 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Dividend discount and Price to FFO.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
19.7% above
-16.5% to fair value
ACCE score
60
out of 100
Analysts
75% buy
8 covering
P/E
7.1x
forward 9.1x
1-year return
-13.0%
Dividend yield
13.66%
Ellington Financial Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Ellington Financial is a mortgage REIT that buys and manages residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities, non-agency loans, and other credit-sensitive real estate assets, funded largely through repo financing and managed by the Ellington platform. The competitive edge is the manager's specialty in less liquid, hard-to-model parts of the mortgage market, where pricing inefficiencies are wider and an experienced team can earn a premium for the complexity. The revenue line rose 33.8% over the latest reported year, a sharp reacceleration for a company whose income depends on portfolio marks and spread capture. At a trailing P/E of 7.3 and a forward P/E of 9.1, the market is pricing the book as a cyclical bet rather than a compounder, and the 12.3% ROE is the number to test against leverage and funding costs. With a $1.6 billion market cap and no index membership, the name is off most passive radar, so the work is whether the spread environment will hold, not whether anyone is watching.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings declining despite revenue growth
Revenue grew 33.8% year over year while earnings fell 3.3%, so the top-line gain is not reaching the bottom line. Net margin of 51.5% leaves little room for further slippage.
moderate
Leverage elevated
Debt to equity sits at 9.25, a high ratio that magnifies losses if asset values or funding costs move against the company.
moderate
ACCE score fell sharply
The composite score dropped 18 points over 90 days, from 77 to 59, with the momentum component at 25 driving much of the decline.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 21, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-18 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Analysts are bullish, with 75% (6 of 8) rating the stock Buy or Strong Buy.
The company beat earnings expectations last quarter, reporting EPS of 0.60 against 0.46 expected.
The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 7.1x and a forward P/E of 5.8x, which looks cheap against its earnings.
Why it could disappoint
The stock trades 19.7% above the model fair value of $9.80, so the consensus of the two valuation models sees no upside.
Debt to equity of 9.25 is high, so a move in rates or credit losses would hit shareholders hard.
The diluted share count rose 14.5% last fiscal year, which dilutes the value each existing share holds.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 4, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where EFC's valuation models land
Price
$11.73
Model fair value
$9.80
Model range
$5.23 to $15.13
Fair value $9.80
Price $11.73
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
Price to FFO
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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