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Valued as a REIT (property company): Price to FFO, Dividend discount, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionBlackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. Common Stock (BXMT)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$10.80
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $10.60 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Dividend discount, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Price to FFO.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
28
out of 100
Analysts
56% buy
9 covering
P/E
132.5x
forward 7.6x
1-year return
-42.4%
Dividend yield
17.77%
Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Blackstone Mortgage Trust is a commercial mortgage REIT that originates and holds senior floating-rate loans secured by institutional-quality commercial real estate, mainly office, hotel, and multifamily assets in the US and Europe. Its edge is the Blackstone sponsor platform, which gives it deal flow and underwriting access that most mortgage REITs lack, along with a loan book concentrated in senior positions. The near-term catalyst is the resolution of its office loan exposure, where workouts and asset sales determine whether reported losses stabilise. The data here looks weak: revenue is down 73.1%, operating margin is -369.1%, and ROE is 0.4%, with a score of 28/100 and no index membership. The 57.1x forward P/E is high for a mortgage REIT, so the case for a deeper look rests on whether the office book is being marked down to bottom and whether earnings normalise, which the current figures do not yet show.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Revenue collapse
Revenue fell 73.1% year on year, and the 5y revenue CAGR of +28.6% is no comfort when the most recent year has gone the other way.
high
Leverage and thin profitability
Debt/Equity of 4.62 sits against an ROE of just +0.4% and an operating margin of -369.1%, leaving little cushion if funding costs or credit losses rise.
moderate
Score deterioration
The ACCE score dropped 21 points over 90 days, from 55 to 34, with the momentum sub-score at 17, so the trend has weakened materially.
moderate
Heavy short interest
Short interest stands at 9.5% of shares, which signals meaningful bearish positioning among market participants.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 19, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, with 5 of 9 covering analysts holding that view.
The most recent quarter beat expectations, with earnings per share of 0.45 against 0.36 expected.
Free cash flow over the last twelve months came to $276M, and the share count fell 1.6% last year.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 73.1% year over year, far below its five-year average growth of 28.6% a year.
Debt is 4.62 times equity, leaving a thin cushion if commercial real estate loans start defaulting.
Return on equity is just 0.4%, and the trailing P/E of 131.6x is hard to justify on that profit.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 29, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where BXMT's valuation models land
Price
$10.60
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
$12.18
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Price to FFO
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