Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
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Valued as a loss-making company: Analyst consensus.
ACCE opinionGinkgo Bioworks Holdings Inc. Class A Common Stock (DNA)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
$8.90
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 23 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $8.00 since 13 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $9.99 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Analyst consensus.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
32
out of 100
Analysts
0% buy
3 covering
P/E
0.0x
forward 0.0x
1-year return
-24.4%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Inc. Class A Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Ginkgo Bioworks builds a cell programming platform that customers use to design and manufacture engineered microbes for pharmaceuticals, food ingredients, and industrial chemicals, and it sells that work on a fee-for-service and milestone basis. The moat is the proprietary automation and strain-engineering data set it has accumulated, though the market has repeatedly questioned whether that data translates into durable revenue. Revenue fell 48.5% in the latest data, and the operating margin of -285.0% against a 68.0% gross margin shows a cost base far too large for the current top line. The investment case rests on management cutting costs fast enough to narrow that gap before the cash runway shortens, and the stock deserves a look only if the restructuring shows up in the next two reporting periods. With a score of 34/100 and no index membership, the quantitative screen is weak, so the work ahead is checking whether the restructuring is real and how much cash remains.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
severe
Cash burn outpacing revenue
Free cash flow is -$178.7M while revenue fell 48.5% year over year and 41.7% quarter over quarter. Operating margin is -285.0%, so the burn is structural, not a one-off.
high
Revenue collapse
Revenue is down 48.5% year over year after a 5-year CAGR of 17.3%. The reversal is sharp, and the company's growth story depends on it recovering.
high
Short interest elevated
Short interest stands at 13.6% of shares outstanding, meaning a meaningful bet against the stock is already in place.
moderate
Price above ACCE target
The stock trades 12.2% above the ACCE price target of $8.90, with the current price at $9.99.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 20, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-20 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Analysts' mean price target sits well below the current price, so the sell side is not betting on a sharp rebound.
Revenue grew 17.3% per year on average over five years, showing the business expanded before its recent slump.
Diluted share count rose only 6.9% last fiscal year, so dilution is moderate rather than severe.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 48.5% year over year, a steep drop that undermines any case built on the company's growth history.
Free cash flow was negative $179M over the last twelve months, meaning the company is burning cash rather than generating it.
None of the three covering analysts rates the stock Buy or Strong Buy, and the latest quarter missed earnings estimates by 22.9%.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 5, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where DNA's valuation models land
Price
$9.99
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $8.00
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