2 models fit Criteo S.A. American Depositary Shares and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average. The price is below every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)Bronze57
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionCriteo S.A. American Depositary Shares (CRTO)
Fair value (2 models)
$32.18
ACCE price target
$19.00
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $34.20 since 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 13 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
Price used: $14.88 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, Dividend discount, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
53.8% below
+116.3% to fair value
ACCE score
46
out of 100
Analysts
45% buy
11 covering
P/E
7.6x
forward 5.0x
1-year return
-28.4%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Criteo S.A. American Depositary Shares in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Criteo runs a retargeting and commerce media platform that serves ads for retail and travel advertisers, selling inventory through its own demand-side technology and a growing set of retail media network partnerships. Its moat rests on a large proprietary dataset of shopper behaviour and on direct integrations with publishers and retailers that are hard to replicate at scale. The near-term story is the transition away from third-party cookies and toward first-party and retail media data, where Criteo is trying to show that its contextual and commerce products can offset weakness in its legacy display business. Revenue fell 11.3% over the last year, and the stock trades at 8.0 times trailing earnings and 5.0 times forward earnings, with a 5.8% operating margin against a 53.6% gross margin. A low multiple on a shrinking top line means the thesis depends on whether the decline stabilises, so the first question for a deeper look is whether the retail media wins are large enough to show up in the reported numbers.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Revenue shrinking sharply
Revenue is down 11.3% year over year, with a 24.1% quarter-on-quarter drop, and earnings fell 43.6%. The five-year revenue CAGR is -1.3%, so this is not a one-quarter blip.
high
Score down 11 points in 90 days
The ACCE score fell from 57 to 46 over 90 days, with the momentum sub-score at 17 out of 100. Deterioration in both fundamentals and price trend is worth sizing around.
moderate
Insider selling outweighs buying
The last 10 disclosed insider transactions total $0.63M in sales against $0.18M in purchases. Short interest is 3.3% of ownership.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 20, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $208M, a strong cash result for a company priced at $15.21.
The stock trades at 5.0x forward earnings against a sector median of 16.7x, a steep discount to peers.
Diluted share count fell 9.4% last fiscal year, so each remaining share owns a larger slice of the business.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 11.3% year over year, and that decline threatens the forward earnings estimate the valuation depends on.
Return on equity of 9.3% and a 5.6% net margin are thin returns for a business that depends on third-party data access.
Only 2 of 5 valuation models feed the consensus, and analysts rating it Buy or Strong Buy are just 45%.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 4, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where CRTO's valuation models land
Price
$14.88
Model fair value
$32.18
Model range
$27.55 to $37.74
Fair value $32.18
Price $14.88
The price is below the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
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Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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