2 models fit CNO Financial Group Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
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Valued as an insurer: Residual income, P/E comparison, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionCNO Financial Group Inc. Common Stock (CNO)
Fair value (2 models)
$42.71
ACCE price target
$57.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $49.51 since 4 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 20 Oct 2026, 14:06 CEST.
Price used: $53.66 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Dividend discount, P/E comparison, and Residual income.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
25.6% above
-20.4% to fair value
ACCE score
73
out of 100
Analysts
0% buy
5 covering
P/E
18.6x
forward 9.7x
1-year return
+34.7%
Dividend yield
1.24%
CNO Financial Group Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
CNO Financial Group sells life insurance, annuities and supplemental health coverage, mostly through a career agent force and worksite and direct-to-consumer channels aimed at middle-income households, with its Bankers Life and Colonial Penn brands serving older customers. The structural tie is to demographics: an aging U.S. population drives steady demand for final-expense and retirement income products, and the company's distribution is built for that segment rather than competing on price in term life. Revenue growth of 11.6% is above what the sector typically delivers, and the stock trades at 9.7 times forward earnings against 18.9 times trailing, a gap that signals the market expects earnings to rise sharply or is doubting the sustainability of the current year's profit. With a 10.9% return on equity and a 16.7% operating margin, the business is profitable but not exceptional, so the case rests on whether that forward multiple is justified. The stock has a 74/100 score and no index membership, which at a $5.1 billion market cap leaves room for a deeper look at reserve assumptions and new-sales trends before any position is considered.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Leverage above peers
Debt/Equity of 1.54 is high for a life insurer and leaves little room if earnings or capital markets turn. Worth sizing the position with that in mind.
moderate
Insider selling, no buying
Insiders sold $7.62M across the last 10 disclosed transactions and bought $0.00M. Insider ownership is only 2.4%, so this is a modest signal rather than a strong one.
moderate
Multi-year revenue growth slow
The 5-year revenue CAGR is 3.3%, well below the 11.6% year-over-year figure. The recent acceleration may not yet be a durable trend.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 19, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $676M, a yield of 13.3% at the current share price.
Earnings per share beat expectations by 27.3%, reporting 1.26 against 0.99 expected in the latest quarter.
Revenue grew 11.6% year over year, well above its 3.3% average annual pace over the past five years.
Why it could disappoint
Return on invested capital is just 2.8%, a thin return on the money the business has tied up.
The stock trades 25.6% above the model fair value of $42.71, and only 2 of 3 valuation models are in that consensus.
Debt to equity stands at 1.54, and none of the 5 analysts rate the shares Buy or Strong Buy.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 29, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where CNO's valuation models land
Price
$53.66
Model fair value
$42.71
Model range
$29.23 to $56.20
Fair value $42.71
Price $53.66
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
P/E comparison
Residual income
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Quality
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