CMG
ACCE-researchedOverview
ACCE thesis
Chipotle assembles and sells burritos, bowls, tacos, and salads through roughly 3,700 company-owned fast-casual restaurants, with no franchisees taking a cut of unit economics. The throughput model - high-volume kitchens with a deliberately narrow menu - generates restaurant-level margins that most QSR operators can't touch, and a 49% ROE with zero franchise royalties tells you the capital efficiency is structural, not cyclical. The next leg of growth runs through international expansion and the continued buildout of Chipotlane drive-through formats, which are demonstrably higher-AUV locations than traditional inline stores. At 25x forward earnings, the market is pricing in a deceleration that may be overdone - 7.4% revenue growth looks soft on the surface, but comp traffic has stabilized after the 2024 input cost noise, and management's 7,000-unit long-term domestic target means the unit count roughly doubles from here. The setup is a quality compounder at a multiple that finally reflects some doubt.
- highEarnings decline significantEarnings YoY down -17.9% despite 7.4% revenue growth, signaling meaningful margin pressure or cost escalation.
- moderateOperating margin thinOperating margin at 13.3% for a restaurant chain with 39.6% gross margin implies heavy SG&A/labor costs compressing profitability.
- moderateValuation premium elevatedP/E 33.4x and EV/EBITDA 22.2x price in strong growth, yet earnings are contracting -17.9% YoY, creating valuation risk.
Walk me through this stock
Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.
Price
Valuation
INVESTORSix independent models converge on one confidence-weighted fair value, with full methodology and editable assumptions.
- +All six models: DCF, P/E and EV/EBITDA comps, Graham, dividend discount, residual income
- +Scenario bands, sensitivity tornado, and the 5-year historical valuation range
- +Editable DCF workbench with saved scenarios
Quality
INVESTORThe full quality picture: conviction breakdown, earnings quality, score history, and backtested returns.
- +Conviction score breakdown and earnings-quality grade
- +Growth / value / quality / momentum component scores
- +90-day score history and score-threshold backtests
Analysts
Wall Street consensus
The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.
- +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
- +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
- +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street
Smart Money
PROFollow the institutions: 13F position changes, insider trades, and active 13D activist filings.
- +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
- +Recent open-market insider transactions
- +Active 13D activist filings and top holders
Compare
Where it sits vs peers
Algorithmic peers (6)
| Ticker | Company | Mcap | P/E | ROE | D/E | Yield | Quality | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YUM | Yum! Brands Inc. | $37.7B | 17.4 | 0.0% | -1.62 | 1.1% | - | Compare |
| CPG.L | Compass Group | $51.1B | 0.3 | 26.9% | 0.71 | 2.3% | - | Compare |
| QSR | Restaurant Brands International Inc. Common Shares | $33.4B | 18.3 | 34.8% | 3.66 | 3.5% | - | Compare |
| QSR.TO | Restaurant Brands International | $33.3B | 18.3 | 34.8% | 3.66 | 2.5% | - | Compare |
| DRI | Darden Restaurants Inc. Common Stock | $23.8B | 20.0 | 53.7% | 1.07 | 2.9% | - | Compare |
| SBUX | Starbucks Corporation Common Stock | $109.2B | 55.4 | 0.0% | -1.99 | 2.6% | - | Compare |
Sector report card
Where CMG ranks against its sector peers on each metric.
News and Record
Press releases mentioning this company
- PR Newswire•Sep 15, 2026CHIPOTLE EXPANDS RESTAURANT LEADERSHIP PIPELINE, AIMS TO PLACE AN APPRENTICE IN EVERY RESTAURANT BY THE END OF 2027
- PR Newswire•Sep 14, 2026CHIPOTLE APPOINTS SABIR SAMI TO ITS BOARD OF DIRECTORS
- GlobeNewswire•Sep 9, 2026BJ’s Restaurants, Inc. Appoints Christopher W. Brandt and James D. White to its Board of Directors
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