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Valued as a loss-making company: Analyst consensus.
ACCE opinionClearwater Paper Corporation Common Stock (CLW)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
$19.80
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $19.29 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Analyst consensus.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
39
out of 100
Analysts
25% buy
4 covering
P/E
0.0x
forward 10.9x
1-year return
-3.4%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Clearwater Paper Corporation Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Clearwater Paper makes private-label consumer tissue, paper towels and bath tissue for retailers, along with paperboard for folding cartons and food packaging. The business is commodity-exposed and sells mostly to store brands, which gives it a steady volume base but little pricing power. Its main near-term lever is operating efficiency, since gross margin has compressed to 1.0% and revenue is shrinking at 4.3%, so any recovery in pulp and converting costs would have to come from the cost side rather than from the top line. At a forward P/E of 10.9 against a trailing P/E of zero, the market is pricing in a return to earnings that the current margins do not yet show, with operating margin at -10.3% and ROE at -10.4%. The score of 46/100 and absence from any major index reflect that weak profitability. A deeper look is warranted only if the reader believes the margin trough is behind the company, which the current numbers do not yet confirm.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Negative operating margin
Operating margin is -10.3% and net margin -3.2%, with FCF at $-76,500 and ROE at -10.4%. The business is losing money at the operating line, not just on a one-off basis.
moderate
Shrinking revenue base
Revenue fell 4.3% year over year and has declined at a 3.6% CAGR over five years, so the top line is contracting rather than growing.
moderate
Earnings jump on weak base
Earnings rose 1025.3% year over year, but that growth starts from a depressed base and does not offset the negative margins and cash flow.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-16 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Forward earnings multiple of 10.9x is modest for a company whose shares trade near $19.30.
Analysts' mean price target of $22.25 sits 15.3% above the current share price.
Diluted share count fell 3.6% last fiscal year, so each remaining share holds a slightly larger claim on earnings.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 4.3% year over year, and the five-year average annual decline is 3.6%.
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was negative at -$76,500, and the free cash flow yield is 0.0%.
Earnings missed expectations by 25.0%, with EPS of -1.75 against -1.40 expected, and only 1 of 4 analysts rates the stock Buy or Strong Buy.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 26, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where CLW's valuation models land
Price
$19.29
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $22.25
Model
Fair value
Upside
Analyst consensus
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Quality
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