3 models fit Cognex Corporation Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Silver63
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionCognex Corporation Common Stock (CGNX)
Fair value (3 models)
$23.37
ACCE price target
$54.90
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CEST; previously $24.85 since 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $81.00 since 18 May 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CEST.
Price used: $55.55 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
137.7% above
-57.9% to fair value
ACCE score
63
out of 100
Analysts
70% buy
20 covering
P/E
53.4x
forward 27.5x
1-year return
+15.6%
Dividend yield
0.62%
Cognex Corporation Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Cognex makes machine vision systems: fixed-mount and handheld barcode readers, 3D vision sensors and the In-Sight and DataMan families that factories and warehouses use to inspect parts and track goods on the line. The moat rests on its software, the vision algorithms and training tools that keep customers on its platform, and on a gross margin of 68.9%, which is high for hardware and suggests the pricing power is real. Revenue growth of 16.9% is the number that matters most, and it points to a rebound in factory automation and logistics spending that the market has not fully priced yet. At 29.5x forward earnings against a trailing 51.9x, the market is pricing in a sharp earnings recovery, so the thesis hinges on whether operating margin, currently 29.4%, holds as volumes return. With ROE at only 11.2%, the business is not yet earning strong returns on its equity base, which is the first thing to check in the deeper work.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Valuation disconnect with growth
P/E 60.5 and EV/EBITDA 37.1 are elevated for a company with 5-year revenue CAGR of -0.4%, despite recent YoY +16.9% growth. Sustainability of recovery unclear.
moderate
Insider selling concentration
Last 10 disclosed transactions show $16.57M in sales, zero buys.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue surged 16.9% year over year with net margins of 16.1%, showing strong pricing power and operational leverage.
Management returned 1.9% of shares while maintaining a fortress balance sheet with 0.04 debt to equity, prioritizing shareholder value.
Why it could disappoint
Trailing P/E of 60.5x and forward P/E of 31.0x leave no margin for error; consensus fair value sits 60.5% below the current share price.
Five year average revenue growth of negative 0.4% per year reveals a stagnant business despite the recent 16.9% bounce.
Free cash flow yield of 1.8% and ROIC of 6.2% are weak for a technology stock trading at such a premium multiple.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 4, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where CGNX's valuation models land
Price
$55.55
Model fair value
$23.37
Model range
$16.86 to $31.23
Fair value $23.37
Price $55.55
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores